Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 74%. Home 7%, draw 19%, away 74%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs FC Porto go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Casa Pia vs FC Porto Prediction

Strong favourite

FC Porto win 74%

Sat 12 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Published 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Casa Piavs

FC Porto

Strong favourite

FC Porto win74%

Casa Pia win: 7%
Draw: 19%
FC Porto win: 74%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.63–2.33
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: FC Porto win 74%, from a -386 Elo gap (1414 vs 1799).
2Expected goals 0.63-2.33.
3Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Samu Aghehowa listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: Casa Pia crest
1414
-386
FC Porto crest
1799
Liga Portugal table
Out: Casa Pia crestCasa PiaNone out
No listed absences
FC Porto crestFC Porto2 out
Samu Aghehowa
Zaidu Sanusi
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Casa Pia crestCasa Pia
LLLLD
Avg xG 0.96-1.47
FC Porto crestFC Porto
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.37-0.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction14.1%
20310.9%
30110.6%
4119.1%
5128.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus FC Porto
Casa Pia goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	11%	14%	11%	6%	3%
1		9%	9%	7%	4%
2		2%	3%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Casa Pia crestCasa PiaNone out

No listed absences.

FC Porto crestFC Porto2 out

Samu AghehowaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Zaidu SanusiOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

4-2-3-1

FC Porto crestFC Porto

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

LLLLD

01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.42
02Gil VicenteAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.76–1.74
07BenficaHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.12–3.04
01CS MarítimoAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.39
11Rio AveHome · 16 May 2026
xG 2.45–0.75

FC Porto crestFC Porto

WWWWW

21MoreirenseHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.90–0.85
30Académico Viseu FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.47–0.79
20FC AroucaHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.92–0.54
20Rio AveAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.97–0.58
20FC AlvercaHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 2.59–1.66

How to read the Casa Pia vs FC Porto probabilities

Casa Pia vs FC Porto (Liga Portugal, 12 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. FC Porto win 74%. Expected goals are 0.63–2.33. Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

FC Porto is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.63–2.33). FC Porto win is 74%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · FC Porto win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs FC Porto

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 74%. Home 7%, draw 19%, away 74%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Casa Pia vs FC Porto go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.