Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 76%. Home 6%, draw 18%, away 76%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs FC Porto go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Casa Pia vs FC Porto prediction

Strong favourite

FC Porto win 76%

Sat 12 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Published 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 2/4 checks hit

Casa Pia

1–4

FC Porto won

FC Porto

1X2

FC Porto win

76%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 0–2 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted FC Porto win · 76%

Actual FC Porto won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 0–2

Actual 1–4

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Casa PiavsFC Porto

Strong favourite

FC Porto win76%

Casa Pia win: 6%
Draw: 18%
FC Porto win: 76%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.60–2.40
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: FC Porto win 76%, from a -382 Elo gap (1417 vs 1799).
2Expected goals 0.60-2.40.
3Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Samu Aghehowa listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1417
-382
1799
Liga Portugal table
Out: Casa PiaNone out
No listed absences
FC Porto3 out
Samu Aghehowa
Victor Froholdt
Zaidu Sanusi
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Casa Pia
DLLLL
Avg xG 0.52-1.81
FC Porto
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.37-0.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction14.3%
20311.4%
30110.4%
4128.6%
5118.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus FC Porto
Casa Pia goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	10%	14%	11%	7%	3%
1		9%	9%	7%	4%
2		2%	3%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Casa Pia win

Fair

16.50

6% model

Listed

16.00

6% book

Draw

Fair

5.53

18% model

Listed

7.30

13% book

FC Porto win

Fair

1.32

76% model

Listed

1.20

81% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.66

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.37
Listed: 2.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.34
Listed: 2.32

BTTS no

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.55

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Casa PiaNone out

No listed absences.

FC Porto3 out

Samu AghehowaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Victor FroholdtOutConcussion
Zaidu SanusiOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Casa Pia

FC Porto

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

FC Porto

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Casa Pia

DLLLL

00Vitória SCAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.21–2.48
01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.42
02Gil VicenteAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.76–1.74
07BenficaHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.12–3.04
01CS MarítimoAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.39

FC Porto

WWWWW

21MoreirenseHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.90–0.85
30Académico Viseu FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.47–0.79
20FC AroucaHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.92–0.54
20Rio AveAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.97–0.58
20FC AlvercaHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 2.59–1.66

How to read the Casa Pia vs FC Porto probabilities

Casa Pia vs FC Porto (Liga Portugal, 12 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. FC Porto win 76%. Expected goals are 0.60–2.40. Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–4.

FC Porto is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.60–2.40). FC Porto win is 76%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · FC Porto win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs FC Porto

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 76%. Home 6%, draw 18%, away 76%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Casa Pia vs FC Porto go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?: BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.