Chelsea crestChelseavsB&
Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove AlbionDraw
Slight · 29%·most likely 1-1 · 14%
- Chelsea
- 30%
- Draw
- 29%
- Albion
- 42%
- xG home
- 1.29
- xG away
- 1.56
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageProbability ledger
Football, expressed as probabilities.
Expected90 publishes match probabilities: expected goals, home/draw/away, likely scores, Over 2.5 and BTTS. Live now: Liga Portugal, La Liga, and Premier League. Elo tables are public for each live league. More leagues and extra markets are in development. Every forecast is stored before kick-off and scored afterwards.
Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.
Chelsea crestChelseavsB&Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion1 of 8 todayChelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Upcoming kick-offs
Matches the model is watching
Kick-off times in Europe/Lisbon. Open any match for the full probability grid.
Chelsea crestChelseavsB&Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove AlbionDraw
Slight · 29%·most likely 1-1 · 14%
- Chelsea
- 30%
- Draw
- 29%
- Albion
- 42%
- xG home
- 1.29
- xG away
- 1.56
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Sunderland crestSunderlandvsF
Fulham crestFulhamSunderland win
Slight · 43%·most likely 2-1 · 9%
- Sunderland
- 43%
- Draw
- 29%
- Fulham
- 29%
- xG home
- 1.57
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Leeds United crestLeeds UnitedvsB
Brentford crestBrentfordDraw
Slight · 29%·most likely 1-1 · 14%
- United
- 34%
- Draw
- 29%
- Brentford
- 37%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.44
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
CD Nacional crestCD NacionalvsEA
CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraCD Nacional win
Slight · 49%·most likely 2-1 · 9%
- Nacional
- 49%
- Draw
- 30%
- Amadora
- 21%
- xG home
- 1.55
- xG away
- 0.95
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- BTTS
- 51%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Real Madrid crestReal MadridvsM
Málaga CF crestMálaga CFReal Madrid win
Strong · 91%·most likely 4-0 · 11%
- Madrid
- 91%
- Draw
- 7%
- CF
- 3%
- xG home
- 3.72
- xG away
- 0.60
- Over 2.5
- 81%
- BTTS
- 44%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Manchester United crestManchester UnitedvsIT
Ipswich Town crestIpswich TownManchester United win
Lean · 68%·most likely 2-1 · 10%
- United
- 68%
- Draw
- 21%
- Town
- 11%
- xG home
- 2.30
- xG away
- 0.86
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- BTTS
- 53%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageLeagues
Liga Portugal, La Liga, and Premier League
A league goes live when the official model is frozen. Each hub has predictions and an Elo table.
Portugal
Liga Portugal
Match-by-match Liga Portugal forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Every published number is stored before kick-off.
Spain
La Liga
Match-by-match La Liga forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline la-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.
England
Premier League
Match-by-match Premier League forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.
Strongest probabilities
Where the model is most concentrated
Highest single 1X2 probability among upcoming matches. Concentration is not a guarantee.
Latest results
What actually happened
Predicted score versus the final score. Early-season samples are noisy — we publish them anyway.
Sevilla crestSevillavsAM
Atlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridFinal 1–3·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Sevilla
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Madrid
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.13
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsE
Espanyol crestEspanyolFinal 2–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Sociedad win
Hit- Sociedad
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Espanyol
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsP
FC Porto crestFC PortoFinal 0–3·Predicted 0-2·Pick FC Porto win
Hit- FC
- 8%
- Draw
- 19%
- Porto
- 73%
- xG home
- 0.69
- xG away
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- BTTS
- 46%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham HotspurvsNU
Newcastle United crestNewcastle UnitedFinal 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Hotspur
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- United
- 33%
- xG home
- 1.42
- xG away
- 1.32
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageModel performance
Walk-forward samples, three live leagues
Every published prediction is stored before kick-off and scored after the match. We report proper scoring rules, not cherry-picked win rates.
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Premier League
- Matches
- 1140
- Log loss
- 0.9796
- 1X2 accuracy
- 54%
- Goal MAE
- 0.94
Versus tip sites
A probability page, not a betting board
Forebet and PredictZ cover more leagues today. Expected90 adds a league when its model is frozen, with timestamps and a public miss rate.
| Site | Output | Tracked results |
|---|---|---|
| Expected90 | Probabilities + xG per match URL | Yes, including noisy rounds |
| Forebet | Football is mathematics. | Model internals and scoring rules are not a public ledger |
| PredictZ | Free soccer predictions and tips | Affiliate betting CTAs are part of the product |
| FootyStats | Football statistics across leagues | xG quality varies by league |
About Expected90
What is Expected90?
Expected90 is a football prediction site that publishes match probabilities — expected goals, home/draw/away, likely score, Over 2.5 and BTTS — then scores every forecast after kick-off. It is a public ledger, not a tipster shop.
Are Expected90 football predictions betting tips?
No. The model outputs probabilities, not certainties. There are no odds, accumulators, or “lock of the day” claims.
How accurate are the models?
Liga Portugal (v1.1.0-p1-elo, 909 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9354, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5644. La Liga (la-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 matches): log loss 0.9732, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5316. Premier League (pl-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 matches): log loss 0.9796, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5421. Live rounds can look noisier; they are still published.