Expected90 is a football prediction site that publishes match probabilities: expected goals, home/draw/away, predicted score, Over 2.5 and BTTS, then scores every forecast after kick-off. It is a public ledger, not a tipster shop. Kick-offs on the Lisbon calendar day are on football predictions today; this homepage is the scored probability board.

Are Expected90 football predictions betting tips?

No. The model outputs probabilities, not certainties. Each match page shows one listed 1X2 price for context — a single OddsPortal listing with the vig removed, labelled closing or pre-kick-off when the capture time is known — so you can see where the model disagrees with the price. There are no accumulators, odds CTAs, or bookmaker links.

How accurate are the models?

Liga Portugal (v1.4.0-elo-span16, 909 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9320, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5611. La Liga (la-v1.4.0-elo-span16, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9703, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5316. Premier League (pl-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9796, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5421. Allsvenskan (as-v1.1.0-elo, 720 walk-forward matches): log loss 1.0142, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.4972. Ligue 1 (l1-v1.1.0-elo, 917 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9982, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5071. Serie A (sa-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9830, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5325. Live rounds can look noisier; they are still published.

18 Oct 2026

Football probabilities, scored after kick-off

Football, expressed as probabilities. Open a row for the full grid. Kick-offs on the Lisbon calendar day live on football predictions today.

11:30Udinese vs LecceUdinesevsLecceSerie ASerie AClear leanUdinese win 56%56% / 26% / 18%
13:00IK Sirius vs IF ElfsborgIK SiriusvsIF ElfsborgAllsvenskanAllsvenskanSlight leanIK Sirius win 44%44% / 24% / 32%
13:00Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIFVästerås SKvsMjällby AIFAllsvenskanAllsvenskanSlight leanVästerås SK win 41%41% / 26% / 33%
14:00Fiorentina vs ComoFiorentinavsComoSerie ASerie ASlight leanComo win 52%23% / 25% / 52%
14:00Angers vs Olympique de MarseilleAngersvsOlympique de MarseilleLigue 1Ligue 1Slight leanOlympique de Marseille win 43%32% / 26% / 43%
14:00Bournemouth vs SunderlandBournemouthvsSunderlandPremier LeaguePremier LeagueSlight leanBournemouth win 47%47% / 29% / 24%
14:00Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal PalaceBrighton & Hove AlbionvsCrystal PalacePremier LeaguePremier LeagueClear leanBrighton & Hove Albion win 63%63% / 23% / 13%
14:00Leeds United vs Manchester UnitedLeeds UnitedvsManchester UnitedPremier LeaguePremier LeagueSlight leanManchester United win 43%28% / 29% / 43%
15:30Örgryte IS vs GAISÖrgryte ISvsGAISAllsvenskanAllsvenskanClear leanGAIS win 57%21% / 22% / 57%
15:30Malmö FF vs BK HäckenMalmö FFvsBK HäckenAllsvenskanAllsvenskanSlight leanMalmö FF win 53%53% / 23% / 25%
15:30Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IFHalmstads BKvsHammarby IFAllsvenskanAllsvenskanStrong favouriteHammarby IF win 72%11% / 16% / 72%
16:15Le Havre vs AuxerreLe HavrevsAuxerreLigue 1Ligue 1Slight leanLe Havre win 50%50% / 27% / 23%
16:15Lorient vs AS MonacoLorientvsAS MonacoLigue 1Ligue 1Slight leanAS Monaco win 44%30% / 26% / 44%
16:15Paris FC vs Stade RennaisParis FCvsStade RennaisLigue 1Ligue 1Slight leanParis FC win 41%41% / 25% / 33%
16:30Nottingham Forest vs ArsenalNottingham ForestvsArsenalPremier LeaguePremier LeagueSlight leanArsenal win 41%29% / 30% / 41%
17:00AC Milan vs AtalantaAC MilanvsAtalantaSerie ASerie AClear leanAC Milan win 57%57% / 24% / 18%
19:45Juventus vs LazioJuventusvsLazioSerie ASerie AClear leanJuventus win 56%56% / 25% / 19%
19:45Olympique Lyonnais vs NiceOlympique LyonnaisvsNiceLigue 1Ligue 1Clear leanOlympique Lyonnais win 59%59% / 23% / 18%
20:00Real Betis vs FC BarcelonaReal BetisvsFC BarcelonaLa LigaLa LigaClear leanFC Barcelona win 61%20% / 20% / 61%
20:00Celta Vigo vs Deportivo AlavésCelta VigovsDeportivo AlavésLa LigaLa LigaSlight leanCelta Vigo win 45%45% / 27% / 28%
20:00Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UDDeportivo de A CoruñavsLevante UDLa LigaLa LigaSlight leanDeportivo de A Coruña win 46%46% / 26% / 29%
20:00Espanyol vs Atlético MadridEspanyolvsAtlético MadridLa LigaLa LigaSlight leanAtlético Madrid win 49%25% / 25% / 49%
20:00Getafe vs Rayo VallecanoGetafevsRayo VallecanoLa LigaLa LigaBalancedGetafe win 38%38% / 29% / 34%
20:00Málaga CF vs Real SociedadMálaga CFvsReal SociedadLa LigaLa LigaSlight leanReal Sociedad win 44%29% / 27% / 44%
20:00Valencia vs Athletic ClubValenciavsAthletic ClubLa LigaLa LigaSlight leanAthletic Club win 41%31% / 27% / 41%
20:00Real Madrid vs SevillaReal MadridvsSevillaLa LigaLa LigaStrong favouriteReal Madrid win 76%76% / 15% / 9%
20:00Villarreal vs ElcheVillarrealvsElcheLa LigaLa LigaStrong favouriteVillarreal win 76%76% / 14% / 10%
20:00Osasuna vs Real Racing ClubOsasunavsReal Racing ClubLa LigaLa LigaClear leanOsasuna win 56%56% / 22% / 21%

Predictions today League directory Results

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Leagues

A league is live when its official model is frozen.

About Expected90

What is Expected90?: Expected90 is a football prediction site that publishes match probabilities: expected goals, home/draw/away, predicted score, Over 2.5 and BTTS, then scores every forecast after kick-off. It is a public ledger, not a tipster shop. Kick-offs on the Lisbon calendar day are on football predictions today; this homepage is the scored probability board.
Are Expected90 football predictions betting tips?: No. The model outputs probabilities, not certainties. Each match page shows one listed 1X2 price for context — a single OddsPortal listing with the vig removed, labelled closing or pre-kick-off when the capture time is known — so you can see where the model disagrees with the price. There are no accumulators, odds CTAs, or bookmaker links.
How accurate are the models?: Liga Portugal (v1.4.0-elo-span16, 909 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9320, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5611. La Liga (la-v1.4.0-elo-span16, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9703, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5316. Premier League (pl-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9796, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5421. Allsvenskan (as-v1.1.0-elo, 720 walk-forward matches): log loss 1.0142, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.4972. Ligue 1 (l1-v1.1.0-elo, 917 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9982, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5071. Serie A (sa-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9830, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5325. Live rounds can look noisier; they are still published.

Football probabilities, scored after kick-off

Today’s kick-offs

Leagues

About Expected90