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Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Moreirense vs CS Marítimo prediction

Balanced

CS Marítimo win 36%

· Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

MoreirensevsCS Marítimo
Balanced

CS Marítimo win36%

Moreirense win
32%
Draw
33%
CS Marítimo win
36%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 16%

Expected goals
1.17–1.26

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
44%
BTTS
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: CS Marítimo win 36%, from a +69 Elo gap (1478 vs 1410).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.17-1.26.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1478

+69

1410

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Predicted XI
3-4-3/4-3-3
Last 5

Moreirense

LWLDD

Avg xG 0.61-1.83

CS Marítimo

LLDWW

Avg xG 1.02-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.6%
  2. 20011.4%
  3. 3018.5%
  4. 4128.2%
  5. 5107.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Moreirense versus CS Marítimo
Moreirense goals012345
011%8%7%3%
18%16%8%3%
26%8%5%2%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Moreirense win

Moreirense win: model 32%, fair 3.16, listed 2.70 (34%)

Fair

3.16

32% model

Listed

2.70

34% book

Draw

Draw: model 33%, fair 3.07, listed 3.10 (30%)

Fair

3.07

33% model

Listed

3.10

30% book

CS Marítimo win

CS Marítimo win: model 36%, fair 2.80, listed 2.50 (37%)

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

2.50

37% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.28, listed 2.30 (41%)

Fair
2.28
Listed
2.30

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.63 (59%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.63

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.91 (49%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
1.91

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 1.80 (51%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
1.80

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Moreirense

3-4-3

  1. 13 André Ferreira · G
  2. 26 Maracás · D
  3. 27 Kiko · D
  4. 66 Gilberto Batista · D
  5. 76 Dinis Pinto · D
  6. 7 Manuel Mendonça · M
  7. 20 João Veloso · M
  8. 23 Nile John · M
  9. 9 Alexandre Parsemain · F
  10. 11 Landerson · F
  11. 19 Tiago Andrade · F

CS Marítimo

4-3-3

  1. 13 Alfonso Pastor · G
  2. 2 Igor Julião · D
  3. 4 Rafael Fernandes · D
  4. 23 Paulo Henrique · D
  5. 44 Romain Correia · D
  6. 6 Rodrigo Andrade · M
  7. 10 Martín Tejón · M
  8. 14 Raphael Guzzo · M
  9. 18 Vladan Danilović · M
  10. 35 Bryan Limbombe · M
  11. 17 Adrián Butzke · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Moreirense

LWLDD
  • 12FC PortoAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.85–2.90

  • 10Casa PiaAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–0.82

  • 04FC AroucaAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.49–2.14

  • 22Sporting BragaHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.22–1.32

  • 00AVS - Futebol SADHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.09–1.98

CS Marítimo

LLDWW
  • 03BenficaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.12–1.31

  • 12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–1.55

  • 22Académico Viseu FCHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.28–1.84

  • 21FamalicãoAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.61–0.59

  • 10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.39–0.67

How to read the Moreirense vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Moreirense vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 14 Sept 2026): Balanced. CS Marítimo win 36%. Expected goals are 1.17–1.26. Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Moreirense and CS Marítimo are close on expected goals (1.17–1.26), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 16%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 20:14 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Balanced · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sept, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Moreirense vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 36%. Home 32%, draw 33%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 16%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Moreirense vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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