Who is favourite for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 41%. Home 28%, draw 32%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Moreirense vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Moreirense vs CS Marítimo prediction

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win 41%

Mon 14 Sept, 20:15 Lisbon · Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Published 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

Moreirense

3–1

Moreirense won

CS Marítimo

1X2

CS Marítimo win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted CS Marítimo win · 41%

Actual Moreirense won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

MoreirensevsCS Marítimo

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win41%

Moreirense win: 28%
Draw: 32%
CS Marítimo win: 41%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.09–1.36
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: CS Marítimo win 41%, from a +66 Elo gap (1476 vs 1410).
2Expected goals 1.09-1.36.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1476
+66
1410
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Moreirense
LLWLD
Avg xG 0.47-2.03
CS Marítimo
LLDWW
Avg xG 1.02-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.1%
20010.9%
3019.4%
4128.7%
5028.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Moreirense versus CS Marítimo
Moreirense goals	0	1	2	3
0	11%	9%	8%	4%
1	7%	15%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%
3		3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Moreirense win

Disagrees

Fair

3.60

28% model

Listed

2.80

34% book

Draw

Fair

3.17

32% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

CS Marítimo win

Fair

2.46

41% model

Listed

2.71

36% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Moreirense win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 2.35

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.62

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.92

BTTS no

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.80

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Moreirense

CS Marítimo

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

CS Marítimo

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Moreirense

LLWLD

04BenficaHome · 9 Sept 2026
xG 0.39–2.99
12FC PortoAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–2.90
10Casa PiaAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–0.82
04FC AroucaAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.49–2.14
22Sporting BragaHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.22–1.32

CS Marítimo

LLDWW

03BenficaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.12–1.31
12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–1.55
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.28–1.84
21FamalicãoAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.59
10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.39–0.67

How to read the Moreirense vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Moreirense vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 14 Sept 2026): Slight lean. CS Marítimo win 41%. Expected goals are 1.09–1.36. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 3–1.

CS Marítimo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.09–1.36). That shows up as CS Marítimo win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 620
Verdict: Slight lean · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off: Mon 14 Sept, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Moreirense vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 41%. Home 28%, draw 32%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Moreirense vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Moreirense vs CS Marítimo?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.