Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 29%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC prediction

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win 53%

Sat 22 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon · Estadio do Maritimo

Published 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 0/4 checks hit

CS Marítimo

2–2

Draw

Académico Viseu FC

1X2

CS Marítimo win

53%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted CS Marítimo win · 53%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CS MarítimovsAcadémico Viseu FC

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win53%

CS Marítimo win: 53%
Draw: 29%
Académico Viseu FC win: 18%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.65–0.89
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: CS Marítimo win 53%, from a -32 Elo gap (1405 vs 1437).
2Expected goals 1.65-0.89.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Nathanael Ogbeta listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1405
-32
1437
Liga Portugal table
Out: CS Marítimo1 out
Nathanael Ogbeta
Académico Viseu FCNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
15 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: CS Marítimo
WLWLD
Avg xG 0.46-0.22
Académico Viseu FC
D
Avg xG 1.07-3.44

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.6%
21011.0%
32010.7%
4009.9%
521Prediction9.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Académico Viseu FC
CS Marítimo goals	0	1	2
0	10%	5%	3%
1	11%	14%	5%
2	11%	10%	4%
3	6%	5%	2%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CS Marítimo win

Disagrees

Fair

1.88

53% model

Listed

2.01

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.51

29% model

Listed

3.23

29% book

Académico Viseu FC win

Fair

5.47

18% model

Listed

3.95

24% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed CS Marítimo win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CS Marítimo1 out

Nathanael OgbetaOutUnknown

Académico Viseu FCNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CS Marítimo

Académico Viseu FC

Confirmed XIConfirmed15 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CS Marítimo

4-2-3-1

Académico Viseu FC

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CS Marítimo

WLWLD

10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.39–0.67
13Estoril PraiaAway · 27 May 2023
xG 0.00–0.00
10VizelaHome · 19 May 2023
12Sporting CPAway · 13 May 2023
22Rio AveHome · 7 May 2023
xG 0.00–0.00

Académico Viseu FC

22BenficaAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.07–3.44

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC (Liga Portugal, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean. CS Marítimo win 53%. Expected goals are 1.65–0.89. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

CS Marítimo is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.65–0.89). CS Marítimo win is 53%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off: Sat 22 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 29%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.