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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC Prediction

· Estadio do Maritimo · CS Marítimo predictions · Académico Viseu FC predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 0/4 checks hit
CMCS Marítimo crest

CS Marítimo

2–2

Draw

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crest

Académico Viseu FC

1X2

CS Marítimo win

53%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted CS Marítimo win · 53%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimovsAVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

Win probabilities

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win 53%

CS Marítimo win
53%
Draw
29%
Académico Viseu FC win
18%
CS Marítimo win %
53%

Predicted

Draw %
29%

Result

Académico Viseu FC win %
18%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: CS Marítimo win 53%, from a -32 Elo gap (1405 vs 1437).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.65-0.89.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Nathanael Ogbeta listed out.
Elo

1405 -32 1437

CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Nathanael Ogbeta · CS Marítimo
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

CS MarítimoW L W L D0.46-0.22 xG

Académico Viseu FCD1.07-3.44 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win · 53% · Miss

Expected goals

1.65–0.89

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Académico Viseu FC
CS Marítimo goals012345
010%5%3%
111%14%5%
211%10%4%
36%5%2%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
47%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
50%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.6%
  2. 1-011.0%
  3. 2-010.7%
  4. 0-09.9%
  5. 2-19.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Out

  • Nathanael Ogbeta · D · Unknown

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-2-3-1

  1. 13Alfonso PastorG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 4Rafael FernandesD
  4. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  5. 44Romain CorreiaD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 10Martín TejónM
  8. 11Simo BouzaidiM
  9. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  10. 18Vladan DanilovićM
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC4-3-3

  1. 98EwertonG
  2. 2Nikolaos MichelisD
  3. 5Pedro BarcelosD
  4. 41Anthony CorreiaD
  5. 75RobinhoD
  6. 6André CeitilM
  7. 8Cihan KahramanM
  8. 14Soufiane MesseguemM
  9. 31João GuilhermeF
  10. 33André ClóvisF
  11. 47Lorougnon GohiF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoW L W L D

  • H · Casa Pia · 8 Aug 20261-01.39-0.67 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0
  • A · Sporting CP · 13 May 20231-2
  • H · Rio Ave · 7 May 20232-20.00-0.00 xG

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCD

  • A · Benfica · 9 Aug 20262-21.07-3.44 xG

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC (Liga Portugal, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean — CS Marítimo win 53%. Expected goals are 1.65–0.89. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

CS Marítimo is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.65–0.89). CS Marítimo win is 53% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 47% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 29%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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