La Liga model performance
La Liga frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0180, log loss 0.9703 on 1140 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 75 scored matches, favourite-correct 48%, prediction hits 10. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.
Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
La Liga reliability
When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0180
- Log loss
- 0.9703
- RPS
- 0.1935
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 38% | 242 | +0% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 46% | 385 | +1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 258 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 71% | 138 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 75% | 69 | +1% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 93% | 43 | +9% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 5 | +8% |
Round ledgers: Round 1 · Round 2 · Round 3 · Round 4 · Round 5 · Round 6 · Round 7 · Round 9
La Liga live sample
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 75
- Favourite-correct
- 48%
- Prediction hits
- 10
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna vs Real Racing Club | 9 | 2–0 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 56%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Valencia vs Athletic Club | 9 | 0–0 | 1–2Miss | Athletic Club win · 41%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Real Betis vs FC Barcelona | 9 | 2–5 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 61%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Villarreal vs Elche | 9 | 0–0 | 3–1Miss | Villarreal win · 76%Miss | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid | 9 | 0–1 | 1–2Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 49%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD | 9 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Deportivo de A Coruña win · 46%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Valencia vs Real Sociedad | 7 | 2–3 | 0–0Miss | Draw · 48%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Villarreal vs Levante UD | 7 | 3–1 | 2–1Miss | Villarreal win · 61%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Real Betis | 7 | 1–1 | 1–2Miss | Real Betis win · 50%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid | 7 | 2–1 | 1–2Miss | Real Madrid win · 45%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Getafe vs Málaga CF | 7 | 1–0 | 1–0Hit | Getafe win · 50%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Sevilla vs FC Barcelona | 7 | 1–3 | 0–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 70%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club | 7 | 5–0 | 2–1Miss | Celta Vigo win · 54%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Athletic Club win · 46%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 39%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Espanyol vs Elche | 7 | 1–3 | 2–1Miss | Espanyol win · 53%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Málaga CF vs Villarreal | 6 | 1–3 | 0–1Miss | Villarreal win · 50%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Real Betis vs Getafe | 6 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | Real Betis win · 65%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| FC Barcelona vs Real Racing Club | 6 | 7–2 | 4–1Miss | FC Barcelona win · 92%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna | 6 | 4–0 | 2–1Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 55%Hit | UnderMiss | YesMiss |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla | 6 | 0–1 | 1–1Miss | Deportivo de A Coruña win · 37%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Elche vs Real Madrid | 6 | 2–3 | 1–2Miss | Real Madrid win · 71%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia | 6 | 0–1 | 2–1Miss | Deportivo Alavés win · 56%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol | 6 | 2–1 | 2–1Hit | Rayo Vallecano win · 48%Hit | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Villarreal vs Real Betis | 5 | 1–2 | 2–1Miss | Villarreal win · 47%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid | 5 | 0–3 | 0–0Miss | Draw · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña | 5 | 1–1 | 1–0Miss | Getafe win · 44%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Levante UD vs FC Barcelona | 5 | 2–4 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 69%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF | 5 | 1–1 | 1–0Miss | Celta Vigo win · 55%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 4–1 | 3–1Miss | Real Madrid win · 77%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Athletic Club vs Elche | 5 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Athletic Club win · 57%Miss | OverMiss | YesHit |
| Osasuna vs Espanyol | 5 | 0–2 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 48%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2–1 | 1–1Miss | Real Racing Club win · 37%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Sevilla vs Valencia | 5 | 1–0 | 1–0Hit | Sevilla win · 43%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Elche vs Real Sociedad | 4 | 2–3 | 1–0Miss | Elche win · 51%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Getafe vs Celta Vigo | 4 | 1–1 | 1–1Hit | Getafe win · 37%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Espanyol vs Sevilla | 4 | 1–1 | 1–1Hit | Espanyol win · 40%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna | 4 | 5–2 | 2–1Miss | Deportivo Alavés win · 45%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Málaga CF vs Levante UD | 4 | 0–0 | 1–2Miss | Levante UD win · 43%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Valencia vs FC Barcelona | 4 | 0–5 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 62%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña | 4 | 2–3 | 2–0Miss | Villarreal win · 70%Miss | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club | 4 | 3–2 | 2–1Miss | Rayo Vallecano win · 52%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid | 4 | 3–0 | 1–1Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 39%Miss | UnderMiss | YesMiss |
| Real Betis vs Real Madrid | 4 | 1–0 | 1–2Miss | Real Madrid win · 53%Miss | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo | 6 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Real Sociedad win · 45%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| FC Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 5–2 | 2–1Miss | FC Barcelona win · 71%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Osasuna vs Getafe | 3 | 1–0 | 1–0Hit | Osasuna win · 47%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club | 3 | 0–2 | 2–1Miss | Celta Vigo win · 48%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia | 3 | 3–1 | 1–1Miss | Valencia win · 40%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Real Madrid vs Málaga CF | 3 | 4–0 | 4–0Hit | Real Madrid win · 91%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1–3 | 1–1Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 39%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Real Sociedad vs Espanyol | 3 | 2–1 | 2–1Hit | Real Sociedad win · 41%Hit | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Levante UD vs Real Betis | 3 | 5–2 | 1–2Miss | Real Betis win · 39%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal | 3 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | Deportivo Alavés win · 37%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Real Racing Club vs Elche | 3 | 3–2 | 2–1Miss | Real Racing Club win · 44%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| FC Barcelona vs Athletic Club | 1 | 2–0 | 2–1Miss | FC Barcelona win · 72%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | 1 | 1–2 | 2–1Miss | Celta Vigo win · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad | 1 | 4–1 | 3–1Miss | Real Madrid win · 77%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Valencia vs Real Betis | 1 | 0–1 | 2–1Miss | Valencia win · 41%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña | 2 | 1–1 | 1–0Miss | Málaga CF win · 44%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Osasuna vs Levante UD | 2 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 44%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Elche vs FC Barcelona | 2 | 0–5 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 54%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Getafe vs Real Racing Club | 2 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | Getafe win · 39%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal | 2 | 2–2 | 2–1Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 41%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Espanyol vs Real Madrid | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2Hit | Real Madrid win · 55%Hit | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Valencia vs Celta Vigo | 2 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Valencia win · 48%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Athletic Club vs Sevilla | 2 | 1–3 | 2–1Miss | Athletic Club win · 49%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Real Betis vs Real Sociedad | 2 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | Real Betis win · 56%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Rayo Vallecano win · 51%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Atlético Madrid vs Málaga CF | 1 | 2–0 | 2–0Hit | Atlético Madrid win · 68%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche | 1 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Deportivo de A Coruña win · 53%Miss | OverMiss | YesHit |
| Espanyol vs Levante UD | 1 | 3–0 | 2–1Miss | Espanyol win · 41%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Real Racing Club vs Villarreal | 1 | 2–2 | 0–1Miss | Villarreal win · 47%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 2–1 | 1–1Miss | Rayo Vallecano win · 37%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe | 1 | 3–0 | 1–0Miss | Deportivo Alavés win · 46%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
La Liga performance questions
- What does the La Liga calibration diagram show?
- Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 1140 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0180 is the average gap.
- Can I check La Liga results by round?
- Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9.
- How should I read live La Liga favourite-correct?
- Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9703 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 53%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga
Live season 2026/27 · round 9
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 75 · 75
- Log loss
- 0.9869·0.9283
- RPS
- 0.1963·0.1828
- Brier
- 0.5867·0.5506
- Goal MAE
- 0.97
- 1X2 accuracy
- 48%
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0586
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0135
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0361
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 75 · 53 | 0.7057·0.5795Δ +0.1156 | 0.2485·0.1966 | 60% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 75 · 53 | 0.7057·0.5795Δ +0.1156 | 0.2485·0.1966 | 60% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 75 · 53 | 0.6894·0.6646Δ +0.0315 | 0.2468·0.2360 | 53% | Model · Closing line |
Frozen walk-forward goals markets
Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1140 | 0.6758 | 0.2415 | 59% |
| Under 2.5 | 1140 | 0.6758 | 0.2415 | 59% |
| BTTS | 1140 | 0.6876 | 0.2472 | 54% |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.