Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 70%. Home 70%, draw 19%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña prediction

Strong favourite

Villarreal win 70%

Sat 5 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon · Estadio de la Ceramica

Published 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Villarreal

2–3

Deportivo de A Coruña won

Deportivo de A Coruña

1X2

Villarreal win

70%Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 2–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Villarreal win · 70%

Actual Deportivo de A Coruña won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–0

Actual 2–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VillarrealvsDeportivo de A Coruña

Strong favourite

Villarreal win70%

Villarreal win: 70%
Draw: 19%
Deportivo de A Coruña win: 10%

Prediction: 2–0
Expected goals: 2.10–0.67
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Villarreal win 70%, from a +205 Elo gap (1606 vs 1400).
2Expected goals 2.10-0.67.
3Prediction 2–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Juan Foyth listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1606
+205
1400
La Liga table
Out: Villarreal1 out
Juan Foyth
Deportivo de A Coruña2 out
Adrià AltimiraSuspended
Noé Carrillo
XI: Expected XI
15 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-4-2
Last 5: Villarreal
LDDWL
Avg xG 1.93-1.23
Deportivo de A Coruña
WDDLL
Avg xG 0.58-0.92

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Prediction13.9%
21013.0%
3309.7%
4219.2%
5119.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Villarreal versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Villarreal goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	4%
1	13%	9%	3%
2	14%	9%	3%	1%
3	10%	6%	2%
4	5%	3%
5	2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Villarreal win

Fair

1.42

70% model

Listed

1.46

68% book

Draw

Fair

5.20

19% model

Listed

5.25

19% book

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

9.64

10% model

Listed

7.50

13% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.70

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.28

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.33
Listed: 1.77

BTTS no

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.98

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Villarreal1 out

Juan FoythOutMuscle Injury

Deportivo de A Coruña2 out

Adrià AltimiraSuspendedyellow or red card suspension
Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Villarreal

Deportivo de A Coruña

Confirmed XIConfirmed15 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Villarreal

4-4-2

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Villarreal

LDDWL

01Deportivo AlavésAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–0.73
22Atlético MadridAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.60–0.78
22Real Racing ClubAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.87–2.01
51Atlético MadridHome · 24 May 2026
xG 2.48–1.16
02Rayo VallecanoAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.97–1.49

Deportivo de A Coruña

WDDLL

31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.42–1.40
11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.95
11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.34–1.23
12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24VillarrealHome · 12 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 5 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Villarreal win 70%. Expected goals are 2.10–0.67. Prediction 2–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–3.

Villarreal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.10–0.67). Villarreal win is 70%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Villarreal win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 70%. Home 70%, draw 19%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: 2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.