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La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña Prediction

· Estadio de la Ceramica · Villarreal predictions · Deportivo de A Coruña predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

VVillarreal crestVillarrealvsDDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Villarreal win 71%

Villarreal win
71%
Draw
19%
Deportivo de A Coruña win
10%
Villarreal win %
71%
Draw %
19%
Deportivo de A Coruña win %
10%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Villarreal win 71%, from a +224 Elo gap (1616 vs 1391).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.21-0.70.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Adama Traoré listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1616 +224 1391

Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña

La Liga table
Out
  • Adama Traoré · Deportivo de A Coruña
  • Noé Carrillo · Deportivo de A Coruña
XI

Last league XI

4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

VillarrealD D W L L1.75-1.26 xG

Deportivo de A CoruñaD D L L D0.29-0.64 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Strong favourite

Villarreal win · 71%

Expected goals

2.21–0.70

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Villarreal versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Villarreal goals012345
06%3%
112%9%3%
213%9%3%
310%7%2%
45%4%
52%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
56%
BTTS %
45%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0Modal13.3%
  2. 1-011.6%
  3. 3-09.8%
  4. 2-19.3%
  5. 1-18.9%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

VVillarreal crestVillarreal

No listed absences.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Out

  • Adama Traoré · F · Physical Discomfort
  • Noé Carrillo · M · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

VVillarreal crestVillarreal4-4-2

  1. 1Luiz JúniorG
  2. 8Juan FoythD
  3. 12Renato VeigaD
  4. 15Santiago MouriñoD
  5. 20Carlos RomeroD
  6. 10Alberto MoleiroM
  7. 14Santi ComesañaM
  8. 18Pape GueyeM
  9. 19Nicolas PépéM
  10. 9Georges MikautadzeF
  11. 22Ayoze PérezF

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña4-2-3-1

  1. 13Leo RománG
  2. 4Lucas NoubiD
  3. 12Giacomo QuagliataD
  4. 15Miguel LoureiroD
  5. 23Ximo NavarroD
  6. 2Adrià AltimiraM
  7. 16Lorenzo AmatucciM
  8. 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
  9. 19Luismi CruzM
  10. 21Mario SorianoM
  11. 7Pierre-Emerick AubameyangF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

VVillarreal crestVillarrealD D W L L

  • A · Atlético Madrid · 23 Aug 20262-23.60-0.78 xG
  • A · Real Racing Club · 16 Aug 20262-20.87-2.01 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 24 May 20265-12.48-1.16 xG
  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 17 May 20260-20.97-1.49 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 13 May 20262-30.83-0.87 xG

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñaD D L L D

  • A · Málaga CF · 24 Aug 20261-11.12-1.95 xG
  • H · Elche · 17 Aug 20261-10.34-1.23 xG
  • A · Valencia · 20 May 20181-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 12 May 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 5 May 20181-10.00-0.00 xG

How to read the Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 5 Sept 2026): Strong favourite — Villarreal win 71%. Expected goals are 2.21–0.70. Modal score 2-0 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Villarreal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.21–0.70). Villarreal win is 71% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 71%. Home 71%, draw 19%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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