Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna prediction

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win 46%

Thu 27 Aug, 19:30 Lisbon · Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:04 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit

Celta Vigo

1–2

Osasuna won

Osasuna

1X2

Celta Vigo win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Celta Vigo win · 46%

Actual Osasuna won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Celta VigovsOsasuna

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win46%

Celta Vigo win: 46%
Draw: 27%
Osasuna win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.11
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Celta Vigo win 46%, from a +55 Elo gap (1525 vs 1469).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.11.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Borja Iglesias listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1525
+55
1469
La Liga table
Out: Celta Vigo1 out
Borja Iglesias
OsasunaNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
12 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/5-4-1
Last 5: Celta Vigo
DWDLW
Avg xG 0.94-1.51
Osasuna
DLLLL
Avg xG 1.17-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.7%
21010.5%
321Prediction9.2%
4208.3%
5007.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Osasuna
Celta Vigo goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	8%	5%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 20 Sept 2026, 02:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Celta Vigo win

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

1.87

51% book

Draw

Fair

3.76

27% model

Listed

3.29

29% book

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Fair

3.63

28% model

Listed

4.71

20% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 3 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Celta Vigo1 out · 1 doubtful

Borja IglesiasOutMuscle Injury
Stefan BajčetićDoubtfulHamstring Injury

OsasunaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 27 Aug 2026, 09:04 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Celta Vigo

Osasuna

Confirmed XIConfirmed12 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Osasuna

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Celta Vigo

DWDLW

00ValenciaAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.58
10SevillaHome · 23 May 2026
xG 1.59–0.80
11Athletic ClubAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.15–2.49
23Levante UDHome · 12 May 2026
xG 2.18–1.52
10Atlético MadridAway · 9 May 2026
xG 0.13–2.18

Osasuna

DLLLL

00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31
01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.51–0.27
12EspanyolHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.79
12Atlético MadridHome · 12 May 2026
xG 2.30–1.56
23Levante UDAway · 8 May 2026
xG 0.63–2.99

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Osasuna probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna (La Liga, 27 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Celta Vigo win 46%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.11. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Celta Vigo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–1.11). That shows up as Celta Vigo win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:04 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off: Thu 27 Aug, 19:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.