Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna prediction

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win 45%

Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Deportivo Alavés

5–2

Deportivo Alavés won

Osasuna

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

45%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 45%

Actual Deportivo Alavés won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 5–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 7 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo AlavésvsOsasuna

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win45%

Deportivo Alavés win: 45%
Draw: 27%
Osasuna win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.39–1.04
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Deportivo Alavés win 45%, from a -3 Elo gap (1483 vs 1486).
2Expected goals 1.39-1.04.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Mikel Rodriguez listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1483
-3
1486
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo Alavés2 out
Mikel Rodriguez
Toni Martínez
Osasuna3 out
Aimar Oroz
Jorge Herrando
Valentin Rosier
XI: Expected XI
6 changes from the expected XI
3-5-2/4-2-2-2
Last 5: Deportivo Alavés
WDWLW
Avg xG 1.47-0.81
Osasuna
WWDLL
Avg xG 1.44-0.64

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.8%
21012.2%
3019.2%
4008.8%
521Prediction8.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Osasuna
Deportivo Alavés goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	9%	5%
1	12%	13%	7%	2%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5			0%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Fair

2.23

45% model

Listed

2.28

43% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

3.70

27% model

Listed

3.15

31% book

Osasuna win

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

3.77

26% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 2.55

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.55

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 2.05

BTTS no

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.73

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés2 out

Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Toni MartínezOutCalf Injury

Osasuna3 out

Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
Valentin RosierOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo Alavés

Osasuna

Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo Alavés

3-5-2

Osasuna

4-2-2-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

WDWLW

10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.73–1.74
11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026
xG 2.00–0.42
30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.93–0.24
12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026
xG 1.63–1.34
10Real OviedoAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.06–0.33

Osasuna

WWDLL

10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.68–0.68
21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31
01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.51–0.27
12EspanyolHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.79

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna (La Liga, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo Alavés win 45%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.04. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 5–2.

Deportivo Alavés holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.39–1.04). That shows up as Deportivo Alavés win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.