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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna Prediction

· Estadio de Mendizorroza · Deportivo Alavés predictions · Osasuna predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Deportivo Alavés crestvsOsasuna crest

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win 49%

Deportivo Alavés win
49%
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
23%
Deportivo Alavés win %
49%
Draw %
27%
Osasuna win %
23%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Deportivo Alavés win 49%, from a +10 Elo gap (1473 vs 1464).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.52-0.97.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Toni Martínez listed out.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Deportivo Alavés win49%2.022.2442%
Draw27%3.693.0930%
Osasuna win23%4.263.3728%

The model disagrees with the listed Deportivo Alavés win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.545%2.212.4239%
Under 2.555%1.821.5761%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes49%2.042.0047%
BTTS no51%1.961.7553%
Elo

1473 +10 1464

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna

La Liga table
Out
  • Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés
XI

Last league XI

5-3-2 / 5-4-1

Last 5

Deportivo AlavésD W L W W1.47-0.59 xG

OsasunaL D L L L1.56-0.81 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win · 49%

Expected goals

1.52–0.97

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Osasuna
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
09%7%4%
112%13%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%
BTTS %
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal12.8%
  2. 1-012.1%
  3. 2-09.6%
  4. 2-19.3%
  5. 0-09.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

Out

  • Toni Martínez · F · Muscle Injury

Osasuna crestOsasuna

Doubtful

  • Valentin Rosier · D · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés5-3-2

  1. 1Antonio SiveraG
  2. 7Ángel PérezD
  3. 14Nahuel TenagliaD
  4. 16Ville KoskiD
  5. 17Jonny OttoD
  6. 21Abderrahman RebbachD
  7. 8Antonio BlancoM
  8. 18Mikel RodriguezM
  9. 19Pablo IbáñezM
  10. 11Toni MartínezF
  11. 15Lucas BoyéF

Osasuna crestOsasuna5-4-1

  1. 1Sergio HerreraG
  2. 5Jorge HerrandoD
  3. 23Abel BretonesD
  4. 24Alejandro CatenaD
  5. 27Iñigo ArguibideD
  6. 29Asier OsambelaD
  7. 6Lucas TorróM
  8. 7Jon MoncayolaM
  9. 11Kike BarjaM
  10. 21Jonathan DubasinM
  11. 9Raúl García de HaroF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésD W L W W

  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 20 Aug 20261-12.00-0.42 xG
  • H · Getafe · 15 Aug 20263-01.93-0.24 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 23 May 20261-21.63-1.34 xG
  • A · Real Oviedo · 17 May 20261-01.06-0.33 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 13 May 20261-00.72-0.60 xG

Osasuna crestOsasunaL D L L L

  • A · Celta Vigo · 27 Aug 20260-12.60-0.14 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 24 Aug 20260-00.67-1.31 xG
  • A · Getafe · 23 May 20260-10.51-0.27 xG
  • H · Espanyol · 17 May 20261-21.72-0.79 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 12 May 20261-22.30-1.56 xG

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna (La Liga, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo Alavés win 49%. Expected goals are 1.52–0.97. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Deportivo Alavés holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.52–0.97). That shows up as Deportivo Alavés win at 49%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 27%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?
1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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