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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction

Slight lean

Real Racing Club win 40%

· El Sardinero

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsDeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés
Slight lean

Real Racing Club win40%

Real Racing Club win
40%
Draw
26%
Deportivo Alavés win
34%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.42–1.28

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Real Racing Club win 40%, from a -55 Elo gap (1429 vs 1483).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.42-1.28.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Andrés Martín listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo
Real Racing Club crest

1429

-55

Deportivo Alavés crest

1483

La Liga table
Out

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing Club1 out

  • Andrés Martín

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés1 out

  • Mikel Rodriguez
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/5-3-2
Last 5

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing Club

LWLD

Avg xG 1.38-1.19

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

WDWLW

Avg xG 1.47-0.81

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.3%
  2. 2109.4%
  3. 321Prediction8.7%
  4. 4018.5%
  5. 5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Racing Club versus Deportivo Alavés
Real Racing Club goals012345
07%9%6%2%
19%12%8%3%
27%9%6%2%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Racing Club win

Real Racing Club win: model 40%, fair 2.49, listed 2.32 (40%)

Fair

2.49

40% model

Listed

2.32

40% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.84, listed 3.42 (27%)

Fair

3.84

26% model

Listed

3.42

27% book

Deportivo Alavés win

Deportivo Alavés win: model 34%, fair 2.95, listed 2.92 (32%)

Fair

2.95

34% model

Listed

2.92

32% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.98, listed 1.92 (51%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.92

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.02, listed 2.03 (49%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
2.03

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 1.62 (57%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.21, listed 2.18 (43%)

Fair
2.21
Listed
2.18

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing Club1 out

  • Andrés MartínOutKnee Injury

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Toni MartínezDoubtfulCalf Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing Club

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Julen Agirrezabala · G
  2. 2 Alvaro Mantilla · D
  3. 4 Manu Hernando · D
  4. 16 Facundo González · D
  5. 17 Jorge Salinas · D
  6. 10 Iñigo Vicente · M
  7. 15 Pablo García · M
  8. 18 Matteo Prati · M
  9. 20 Sergio Canales · M
  10. 23 Iván Martín · M
  11. 21 Yassir Zabiri · F

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

5-3-2

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 7 Ángel Pérez · D
  3. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  4. 16 Ville Koski · D
  5. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  6. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · D
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 18 Mikel Rodriguez · M
  9. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Racing Club crestReal Racing Club

LWLD
  • 23Rayo VallecanoAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–1.61

  • 32ElcheHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.72–1.03

  • 01GetafeAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.31–1.24

  • 22VillarrealHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.01–0.87

Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

WDWLW
  • 10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 0.73–1.74

  • 11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 2.00–0.42

  • 30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.93–0.24

  • 12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.63–1.34

  • 10Real OviedoAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.06–0.33

How to read the Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Real Racing Club win 40%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.28. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Real Racing Club and Deportivo Alavés are close on expected goals (1.42–1.28), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Real Racing Club win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Racing Club win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 26%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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