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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Valencia vs Celta Vigo prediction

Slight lean

Valencia win 48%

· Mestalla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

Valencia

0–0

Draw

Celta Vigo

1X2

Valencia win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Valencia win · 48%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

ValenciavsCelta Vigo
Slight lean

Valencia win48%

Valencia win
48%
Draw
27%
Celta Vigo win
25%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–0 at 13%

Expected goals
1.44–0.95

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS
47%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Valencia win 48%, from a -15 Elo gap (1509 vs 1523).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.44-0.95.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%.
  4. 4Alberto Mari listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1509

-15

1523

La Liga table
Out

Valencia3 out

  • Alberto Mari
  • José Copete
  • Luis Rioja

Celta VigoNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

9 changes from the expected XI

5-4-1/3-4-3
Last 5

Valencia

WWDWL

Avg xG 1.21-1.29

Celta Vigo

WDLWW

Avg xG 1.02-1.74

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Modal13.2%
  2. 21112.5%
  3. 3209.5%
  4. 400Result9.0%
  5. 521Prediction9.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Valencia versus Celta Vigo
Valencia goals012345
09%9%4%
113%12%6%
29%9%4%
35%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Valencia win

Disagrees

Valencia win: model 48%, fair 2.06, listed 2.49 (38%)

Fair

2.06

48% model

Listed

2.49

38% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.76, listed 3.12 (31%)

Fair

3.76

27% model

Listed

3.12

31% book

Celta Vigo win

Celta Vigo win: model 25%, fair 4.00, listed 3.09 (31%)

Fair

4.00

25% model

Listed

3.09

31% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Valencia win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Valencia3 out

  • Alberto MariOutMuscle Injury
  • José CopeteOutMeniscus Injury
  • Luis RiojaOutMuscle Injury

Celta VigoNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Valencia

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 5 César Tárrega · D
  3. 14 José Luis Gayà · D
  4. 24 Eray Cömert · D · changed
  5. 2 Guido Rodríguez · M
  6. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  7. 16 Diego López · M · changed
  8. 18 Pepelu · M
  9. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  10. 11 Luis Rioja · F · changed
  11. 17 Largie Ramazani · F · changed

Celta Vigo

  1. 13 Ionuț Radu · G
  2. 3 Marcos Alonso · D
  3. 5 Sergio Carreira · D
  4. 20 Javi Rodríguez · D
  5. 29 Yoel Lago · D
  6. 6 Ilaix Moriba · M · changed
  7. 8 Fer López · M · changed
  8. 17 Javier Rueda · M · changed
  9. 7 Borja Iglesias · F · changed
  10. 9 Ferrán Jutglà · F
  11. 19 Williot Swedberg · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Valencia

5-4-1

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 5 César Tárrega · D
  3. 12 Justin De Haas · D · changed
  4. 14 José Luis Gayà · D
  5. 18 Pepelu · D
  6. 21 Jesús Vázquez · D · changed
  7. 2 Guido Rodríguez · M
  8. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  9. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  10. 39 Ryunosuke Sato · M · changed
  11. 7 Arnaut Danjuma · F · changed

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

  1. 13 Ionuț Radu · G
  2. 3 Marcos Alonso · D
  3. 20 Javi Rodríguez · D
  4. 29 Yoel Lago · D
  5. 5 Sergio Carreira · M
  6. 8 Miguel Román · M · changed
  7. 14 Aleix Febas · M · changed
  8. 22 Javi Galán · M · changed
  9. 9 Ferran Jutglà · F
  10. 23 Hugo Álvarez · F · changed
  11. 39 Jones El-Abdellaoui · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Valencia

WWDWL
  • 31FC BarcelonaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.35–1.18

  • 43Real SociedadAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.67–1.15

  • 11Rayo VallecanoHome · 14 May 2026

    xG 0.76–1.16

  • 10Athletic ClubAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.19–0.93

  • 02Atlético MadridHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 1.09–2.04

Celta Vigo

WDLWW
  • 10SevillaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.59–0.80

  • 11Athletic ClubAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.15–2.49

  • 23Levante UDHome · 12 May 2026

    xG 2.18–1.52

  • 10Atlético MadridAway · 9 May 2026

    xG 0.13–2.18

  • 31ElcheHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 1.05–1.71

How to read the Valencia vs Celta Vigo probabilities

Valencia vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Valencia win 48%. Expected goals are 1.44–0.95. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–0.

Valencia holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.44–0.95). That shows up as Valencia win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Valencia win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Who is favourite for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 27%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Valencia vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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