Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla prediction

Balanced

Deportivo de A Coruña win 39%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estadio Riazor

Published 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Deportivo de A CoruñavsSevilla

Balanced

Deportivo de A Coruña win39%

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 39%
Draw: 27%
Sevilla win: 34%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.32–1.22
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Deportivo de A Coruña win 39%, from a -57 Elo gap (1414 vs 1471).
2Expected goals 1.32-1.22.
3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Noé Carrillo listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1414
-57
1471
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo de A Coruña1 out
Noé Carrillo
Sevilla2 out
Arouna Sangante
Rubén Vargas
XI: Last league XI
4-4-2/4-3-3
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
WWDDL
Avg xG 0.74-1.16
Sevilla
DLWWL
Avg xG 0.97-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.9%
21010.2%
3019.4%
4218.4%
5008.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Sevilla
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	9%	6%	2%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%
3	3%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 9 Sept 2026, 17:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

2.57

39% model

Listed

2.43

38% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

3.68

27% model

Listed

2.94

31% book

Sevilla win

Fair

2.94

34% model

Listed

3.04

30% book

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 2.30

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 1.67

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.90

BTTS no

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 1.82

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo de A Coruña1 out

Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury

Sevilla2 out

Arouna SanganteOutSprained Ankle
Rubén VargasOutPhysical Discomfort

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-4-2

Sevilla

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

WWDDL

32VillarrealAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.83–1.20
31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.42–1.40
11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.95
11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.34–1.23
12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

Sevilla

DLWWL

11EspanyolAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.53–1.23
13Atlético MadridHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.90–0.93
31Athletic ClubAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.41–1.25
21Rayo VallecanoHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.19–1.89
01Celta VigoAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.80–1.59

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Balanced. Deportivo de A Coruña win 39%. Expected goals are 1.32–1.22. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Deportivo de A Coruña and Sevilla are close on expected goals (1.32–1.22), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Balanced · Deportivo de A Coruña win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.