Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 27%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla prediction

Balanced

Deportivo de A Coruña win 37%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estadio Riazor

Published 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

Deportivo de A Coruña

0–1

Sevilla won

Sevilla

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

37%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Deportivo de A Coruña win · 37%

Actual Sevilla won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo de A CoruñavsSevilla

Balanced

Deportivo de A Coruña win37%

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 37%
Draw: 27%
Sevilla win: 36%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.26–1.23
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Deportivo de A Coruña win 37%, from a -61 Elo gap (1416 vs 1478).
2Expected goals 1.26-1.23.
3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Arouna Sangante listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1416
-61
1478
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo de A CoruñaNone out
No listed absences
Sevilla2 out
Arouna Sangante
Rubén Vargas
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
DWWDD
Avg xG 0.92-1.30
Sevilla
WDLWW
Avg xG 0.99-1.08

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.9%
21010.4%
301Result10.1%
4008.3%
5218.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Sevilla
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	10%	6%	3%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%
3	3%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:08 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

2.69

37% model

Listed

2.80

35% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

3.68

27% model

Listed

3.15

31% book

Sevilla win

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

2.90

34% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (small). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.20

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.68

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.85

BTTS no

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.88

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo de A CoruñaNone out

No listed absences.

Sevilla2 out

Arouna SanganteOutSprained Ankle
Rubén VargasOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo de A Coruña

Sevilla

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-4-2

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

DWWDD

11GetafeAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.88–0.70
32VillarrealAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.83–1.20
31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.42–1.40
11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.95
11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.34–1.23

Sevilla

WDLWW

10ValenciaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.93–0.10
11EspanyolAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.53–1.23
13Atlético MadridHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.90–0.93
31Athletic ClubAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.41–1.25
21Rayo VallecanoHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.19–1.89

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Balanced. Deportivo de A Coruña win 37%. Expected goals are 1.26–1.23. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Deportivo de A Coruña and Sevilla are close on expected goals (1.26–1.23), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Balanced · Deportivo de A Coruña win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 27%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Sevilla?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.