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La Liga round 1 results

La Liga round 1 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 50%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna; Valencia vs Real Betis; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche; Real Racing Club vs Villarreal; Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 1. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 1 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 1 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
50%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
FC Barcelona vs Athletic Club12–02–1MissFC Barcelona win · 72%HitOverMissYesMiss
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna11–22–1MissCelta Vigo win · 46%MissUnderMissYesHit
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad14–13–1MissReal Madrid win · 77%HitOverHitYesHit
Valencia vs Real Betis10–12–1MissValencia win · 41%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Atlético Madrid vs Málaga CF12–02–0HitAtlético Madrid win · 68%HitOverMissNoHit
Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche11–12–1MissDeportivo de A Coruña win · 53%MissOverMissYesHit
Espanyol vs Levante UD13–02–1MissEspanyol win · 41%HitUnderMissNoHit
Real Racing Club vs Villarreal12–20–1MissVillarreal win · 47%MissUnderMissNoMiss
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano12–11–1MissRayo Vallecano win · 37%MissUnderMissNoMiss
Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe13–01–0MissDeportivo Alavés win · 46%HitUnderMissNoHit

All La Liga resultsNext: round 2

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 1 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 1?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 1 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Round 1 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
0.8943·0.8796

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0147

RPS
0.1811·0.1764

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0047

Brier
0.5229·0.5124

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0105

Goal MAE
0.83
1X2 accuracy
50%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.5100.83790.320220%
Under 2.5100.83790.320220%
BTTS100.66460.236460%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.