FC Barcelona crestFC BarcelonavsAC
Athletic Club crestAthletic ClubFinal 2–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick FC Barcelona win
Hit- Barcelona
- 72%
- Draw
- 17%
- Club
- 10%
- xG home
- 2.39
- xG away
- 0.81
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageSpain · la-v1.1.0-elo · Round 1
La Liga round 1 results
La Liga round 1 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. Favourite-correct is 50%; exact score hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna; Valencia vs Real Betis; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche; Real Racing Club vs Villarreal; Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
La Liga round 1 prediction results
Expected90 La Liga round 1 prediction results: 10 scored matches, favourite-correct 50%, exact score hits 1. Predicted score vs final score for every fixture. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.
- Matches in view
- 10
- Favourite-correct
- 50%
- Game pick hit rate
- 50%
- Exact score hits
- 1
All La Liga resultsNext: round 2
FC Barcelona crestFC BarcelonavsACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club
Celta Vigo crestCelta VigovsO
Osasuna crestOsasunaFinal 1–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Celta Vigo win
Miss- Vigo
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- Osasuna
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.51
- xG away
- 1.11
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Madrid crestReal MadridvsRS
Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadFinal 4–1·Predicted 3-1·Pick Real Madrid win
Hit- Madrid
- 77%
- Draw
- 15%
- Sociedad
- 8%
- xG home
- 2.65
- xG away
- 0.78
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Valencia crestValenciavsRB
Real Betis crestReal BetisFinal 0–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Valencia win
Miss- Valencia
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 33%
- xG home
- 1.40
- xG away
- 1.22
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Atlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridvsM
Málaga CF crestMálaga CFFinal 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick Atlético Madrid win
Hit- Madrid
- 68%
- Draw
- 19%
- CF
- 13%
- xG home
- 2.07
- xG away
- 0.76
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñavsE
Elche crestElcheFinal 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Over 2.5
Miss- Coruña
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Elche
- 26%
- xG home
- 2.16
- xG away
- 1.49
- Over 2.5
- 71%
- BTTS
- 69%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Espanyol crestEspanyolvsL
Levante UD crestLevante UDFinal 3–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Espanyol win
Hit- Espanyol
- 41%
- Draw
- 27%
- UD
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.33
- xG away
- 1.13
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsV
Villarreal crestVillarrealFinal 2–2·Predicted 0-1·Pick Villarreal win
Miss- Club
- 25%
- Draw
- 28%
- Villarreal
- 47%
- xG home
- 0.88
- xG away
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- BTTS
- 43%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Sevilla crestSevillavsRV
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanoFinal 2–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Sevilla
- 35%
- Draw
- 28%
- Vallecano
- 37%
- xG home
- 1.15
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsG
Getafe crestGetafeFinal 3–0·Predicted 1-0·Pick Deportivo Alavés win
Hit- Alavés
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Getafe
- 26%
- xG home
- 1.32
- xG away
- 0.92
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- BTTS
- 44%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageLa Liga round 1 questions
How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 1?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 1 exact scores hit. That is a small sample; log loss on the frozen 909-match set is the better quality number.
Where are the La Liga round 1 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3.
la-v1.1.0-elo
La Liga
Validation
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
- Matches
- 1140
- Log loss
- 0.9732
- RPS
- 0.1944
- ECE
- 0.0260
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Frozen official baseline la-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5316 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize. The reliability diagram is favourite probability vs how often that favourite won.
Live season 2026/27 · round 3
- Matches scored
- 25
- Log loss
- 0.9765
- RPS
- 0.1896
- 1X2 accuracy
- 52%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.