Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Getafe?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 30%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Getafe?

1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Osasuna vs Getafe go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Getafe?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Getafe prediction

Slight lean

Osasuna win 47%

Mon 31 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon · Estadio El Sadar

Published 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 4/4 checks hit

Osasuna

1–0

Osasuna won

Getafe

1X2

Osasuna win

47%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–0 · score hit

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Osasuna win · 47%

Actual Osasuna won

Prediction

Hit

Predicted 1–0

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

OsasunavsGetafe

Slight lean

Osasuna win47%

Osasuna win: 47%
Draw: 30%
Getafe win: 24%

Prediction: 1–0
Expected goals: 1.31–0.86
Over 2.5: 37%
BTTS: 43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Osasuna win 47%, from a +2 Elo gap (1480 vs 1478).
2Expected goals 1.31-0.86.
3Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Abdel Abqar listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1480
+2
1478
La Liga table
Out: OsasunaNone out
No listed absences
Getafe4 out
Abdel Abqar
Christantus Uche
Juanmi
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5: Osasuna
WDLLL
Avg xG 1.56-0.81
Getafe
WLWLW
Avg xG 0.69-0.96

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110PredictionResult14.3%
21113.5%
30012.0%
4209.8%
5019.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Getafe
Osasuna goals	0	1	2
0	12%	9%	4%
1	14%	13%	6%
2	10%	8%	4%
3	4%	4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Fair

2.15

47% model

Listed

2.17

44% book

Draw

Fair

3.37

30% model

Listed

2.87

33% book

Getafe win

Fair

4.20

24% model

Listed

4.18

23% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 3 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.70
Listed: 3.20

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.59
Listed: 1.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.34
Listed: 2.40

BTTS no

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.53

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Osasuna0 out · 1 doubtful

Valentin RosierDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Getafe4 out

Abdel AbqarOutMuscle Injury
Christantus UcheOutCruciate Ligament Injury
JuanmiOutKnee Injury
Mario MartínOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Osasuna

Getafe

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Osasuna

4-2-3-1

Getafe

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna

WDLLL

21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31
01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.51–0.27
12EspanyolHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–0.79
12Atlético MadridHome · 12 May 2026
xG 2.30–1.56

Getafe

WLWLW

10Real Racing ClubHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.24–1.31
03Deportivo AlavésAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 0.24–1.93
10OsasunaHome · 23 May 2026
xG 0.27–0.51
01ElcheAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.11–0.66
31MallorcaHome · 13 May 2026
xG 1.58–0.41

How to read the Osasuna vs Getafe probabilities

Osasuna vs Getafe (La Liga, 31 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Osasuna win 47%. Expected goals are 1.31–0.86. Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–0.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.31–0.86). That shows up as Osasuna win at 47%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 37%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off: Mon 31 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Getafe

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Getafe?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 30%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Getafe?: 1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Osasuna vs Getafe go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Getafe?: BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.