Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Málaga CF win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 28%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña prediction

Slight lean

Málaga CF win 44%

Mon 24 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon · La Rosaleda

Published 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Málaga CF

1–1

Draw

Deportivo de A Coruña

1X2

Málaga CF win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Málaga CF win · 44%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–0

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Málaga CFvsDeportivo de A Coruña

Slight lean

Málaga CF win44%

Málaga CF win: 44%
Draw: 28%
Deportivo de A Coruña win: 28%

Prediction: 1–0
Expected goals: 1.32–0.99
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Málaga CF win 44%, from a -24 Elo gap (1367 vs 1391).
2Expected goals 1.32-0.99.
3Prediction 1–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Adrián Niño listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1367
-24
1391
La Liga table
Out: Málaga CF3 out
Adrián Niño
Diego Murillo
Fernando Calero
Deportivo de A Coruña1 out
Noé Carrillo
XI: Expected XI
22 changes from the expected XI
4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Málaga CF
LLLLW
Avg xG 0.00-0.00
Deportivo de A Coruña
LLDLD
Avg xG 0.00-0.00

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Prediction13.2%
211Result12.9%
3009.9%
4019.9%
5208.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Málaga CF goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	10%	5%
1	13%	13%	6%	2%
2	9%	9%	4%
3	4%	4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 20 Sept 2026, 02:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Málaga CF win

Disagrees

Fair

2.26

44% model

Listed

2.41

40% book

Draw

Fair

3.60

28% model

Listed

3.06

31% book

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

3.58

28% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Málaga CF win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Málaga CF3 out

Adrián NiñoOutThigh Injury
Diego MurilloOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Fernando CaleroOutBroken Rib

Deportivo de A Coruña1 out

Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Málaga CF

Deportivo de A Coruña

Confirmed XIConfirmed22 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Málaga CF

4-1-4-1

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Málaga CF

LLLLW

01GetafeHome · 19 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
14EspanyolAway · 13 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
03Deportivo AlavésHome · 6 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
12Real BetisAway · 30 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
20Real SociedadHome · 22 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

Deportivo de A Coruña

LLDLD

12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24VillarrealHome · 12 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
11Celta VigoAway · 5 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24FC BarcelonaHome · 29 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
00LeganésAway · 20 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 24 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Málaga CF win 44%. Expected goals are 1.32–0.99. Prediction 1–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–1.

Málaga CF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.32–0.99). That shows up as Málaga CF win at 44%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Málaga CF win
Kick-off: Mon 24 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Málaga CF win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 28%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: 1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.