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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña Prediction

· La Rosaleda · Málaga CF predictions · Deportivo de A Coruña predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit
MMálaga CF crest

Málaga CF

1–1

Draw

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crest

Deportivo de A Coruña

1X2

Málaga CF win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Málaga CF win · 44%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-0

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

MMálaga CF crestMálaga CFvsDDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Málaga CF win 44%

Málaga CF win
44%
Draw
28%
Deportivo de A Coruña win
28%
Málaga CF win %
44%

Predicted

Draw %
28%

Result

Deportivo de A Coruña win %
28%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Málaga CF win 44%, from a -24 Elo gap (1367 vs 1391).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.32-0.99.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Adrián Niño listed out and 3 other absences.
Elo

1367 -24 1391

Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña

La Liga table
Out
  • Adrián Niño · Málaga CF
  • Diego Murillo · Málaga CF
  • Noé Carrillo · Deportivo de A Coruña
XI

Confirmed

4-1-4-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Málaga CFL L L L W0.00-0.00 xG

Deportivo de A CoruñaL L D L D0.00-0.00 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Málaga CF win · 44% · Miss

Expected goals

1.32–0.99

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Málaga CF goals012345
010%10%5%
113%13%6%2%
29%9%4%
34%4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
41%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS %
46%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal13.2%
  2. 1-1Result12.9%
  3. 0-09.9%
  4. 0-19.9%
  5. 2-08.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

MMálaga CF crestMálaga CF

Out

  • Adrián Niño · F · Thigh Injury
  • Diego Murillo · D · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Fernando Calero · D · Broken Rib

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Out

  • Noé Carrillo · M · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

MMálaga CF crestMálaga CF4-1-4-1

  1. 1Alfonso HerreroG
  2. 3Carlos PugaD
  3. 4Einar GalileaD
  4. 15Ángel RecioD
  5. 31Rafa GarridoD
  6. 8Carlos DotorM
  7. 11Joaquín MuñozM
  8. 19Juan CruzM
  9. 22Dani LorenzoM
  10. 23Izan MerinoM
  11. 9ChupeteF

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña4-2-3-1

  1. 13Leo RománG
  2. 4Lucas NoubiD
  3. 12Giacomo QuagliataD
  4. 15Miguel LoureiroD
  5. 23Ximo NavarroD
  6. 2Adrià AltimiraM
  7. 16Lorenzo AmatucciM
  8. 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
  9. 19Luismi CruzM
  10. 21Mario SorianoM
  11. 7Pierre-Emerick AubameyangF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

MMálaga CF crestMálaga CFL L L L W

  • H · Getafe · 19 May 20180-10.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 13 May 20181-40.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Deportivo Alavés · 6 May 20180-30.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 30 Apr 20181-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Real Sociedad · 22 Apr 20182-00.00-0.00 xG

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñaL L D L D

  • A · Valencia · 20 May 20181-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 12 May 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 5 May 20181-10.00-0.00 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 29 Apr 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Leganés · 20 Apr 20180-00.00-0.00 xG

How to read the Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 24 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Málaga CF win 44%. Expected goals are 1.32–0.99. Modal score 1-0 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–1.

Málaga CF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.32–0.99). That shows up as Málaga CF win at 44%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Málaga CF win
Kick-off
Mon 24 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Málaga CF win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 28%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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