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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe prediction

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win 46%

· Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit

Deportivo Alavés

3–0

Deportivo Alavés won

Getafe

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

46%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 46%

Actual Deportivo Alavés won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–0

Actual 3–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Deportivo AlavésvsGetafe
Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win46%

Deportivo Alavés win
46%
Draw
28%
Getafe win
26%
Prediction
1–0

Grid peak · 14% · Miss

Expected goals
1.32–0.92

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
39%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS
44%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Deportivo Alavés win 46%, from a -14 Elo gap (1464 vs 1479).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.32-0.92.
  3. 3Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Christantus Uche listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1464

-14

1479

La Liga table
Out

Deportivo AlavésNone out

No listed absences

Getafe2 out

  • Christantus Uche
  • Juanmi
XI
Expected XI

8 changes from the expected XI

3-5-2/3-5-2
Last 5

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDL

Avg xG 1.19-0.93

Getafe

WLWDL

Avg xG 0.96-0.62

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Prediction14.1%
  2. 21112.9%
  3. 30010.7%
  4. 4019.9%
  5. 5209.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Getafe
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
011%10%5%
114%13%6%
29%9%4%
34%4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Deportivo Alavés win: model 46%, fair 2.18, listed 2.36 (41%)

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

2.36

41% book

Draw

Disagrees

Draw: model 28%, fair 3.56, listed 2.77 (35%)

Fair

3.56

28% model

Listed

2.77

35% book

Getafe win

Getafe win: model 26%, fair 3.84, listed 3.88 (25%)

Fair

3.84

26% model

Listed

3.88

25% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés0 out · 1 doubtful

  • Lucas BoyéDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Getafe2 out

  • Christantus UcheOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • JuanmiOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo Alavés

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  4. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · D
  5. 24 Victor Parada · D · changed
  6. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 18 Jon Guridi · M · changed
  9. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 22 Ibrahim Diabaté · F · changed

Getafe

  1. 13 David Soria · G
  2. 2 Djené · D
  3. 2 Juan Iglesias · D · changed
  4. 5 Abdel Abqar · D
  5. 22 Domingos Duarte · D · changed
  6. 24 Zaid Romero · D
  7. 5 Luis Milla · M · changed
  8. 6 Mario Martín · M
  9. 8 Mauro Arambarri · M · changed
  10. 10 Martín Satriano · F
  11. 19 Luis Vázquez · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo Alavés

3-5-2

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 16 Ville Koski · D · changed
  4. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  5. 4 Denis Suárez · M · changed
  6. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  9. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 20 Aitor Mañas · F · changed

Getafe

3-5-2

  1. 13 David Soria · G
  2. 2 Djené · D
  3. 5 Abdel Abqar · D
  4. 24 Zaid Romero · D
  5. 3 Davinchi · M · changed
  6. 6 Mario Martín · M
  7. 11 Ramón Terrats · M · changed
  8. 17 Kiko Femenía · M · changed
  9. 23 Orel Mangala · M · changed
  10. 10 Martín Satriano · F
  11. 21 Andrés García · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDL
  • 12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.63–1.34

  • 10Real OviedoAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.06–0.33

  • 10FC BarcelonaHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 0.72–0.60

  • 11ElcheAway · 9 May 2026

    xG 2.05–1.39

  • 24Athletic ClubHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 0.49–0.97

Getafe

WLWDL
  • 10OsasunaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.27–0.51

  • 01ElcheAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.11–0.66

  • 31MallorcaHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 1.58–0.41

  • 00Real OviedoAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.36–0.54

  • 02Rayo VallecanoHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 1.49–0.98

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe (La Liga, 15 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo Alavés win 46%. Expected goals are 1.32–0.92. Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–0.

Deportivo Alavés holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.32–0.92). That shows up as Deportivo Alavés win at 46%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 39%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Sat 15 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 28%, away 26%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?
1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 39% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?
BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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