Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 26%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Athletic Club vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Athletic Club vs Sevilla prediction

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 49%

Sat 22 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon · San Mamés

Published 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit

Athletic Club

1–3

Sevilla won

Sevilla

1X2

Athletic Club win

49%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Athletic Club win · 49%

Actual Sevilla won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Athletic ClubvsSevilla

Slight lean

Athletic Club win49%

Athletic Club win: 49%
Draw: 26%
Sevilla win: 25%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.47–0.98
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 49%, from a +63 Elo gap (1520 vs 1457).
2Expected goals 1.47-0.98.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%.
4Dani Vivian listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1520
+63
1457
La Liga table
Out: Athletic Club1 out
Dani Vivian
Sevilla2 out
Kike SalasSuspended
Alfon González
XI: Expected XI
12 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Athletic Club
LDLLW
Avg xG 1.20-0.90
Sevilla
LLWWW
Avg xG 1.12-0.84

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal12.7%
21112.4%
3209.3%
421Prediction9.2%
5008.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Sevilla
Athletic Club goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	8%	4%
1	13%	12%	6%	2%
2	9%	9%	4%
3	5%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 16 Sept 2026, 02:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Athletic Club win

Fair

2.06

49% model

Listed

1.76

54% book

Draw

Fair

3.82

26% model

Listed

3.61

26% book

Sevilla win

Disagrees

Fair

3.97

25% model

Listed

4.99

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 3 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Sevilla win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Athletic Club1 out

Dani VivianOutHamstring Injury

Sevilla2 out

Kike SalasSuspendedred card suspension
Alfon GonzálezOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Athletic Club

Sevilla

Confirmed XIConfirmed12 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Athletic Club

LDLLW

24Real MadridAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.81–1.90
11Celta VigoHome · 17 May 2026
xG 2.49–0.15
02EspanyolAway · 13 May 2026
xG 0.82–0.76
01ValenciaHome · 10 May 2026
xG 0.93–1.19
42Deportivo AlavésAway · 2 May 2026
xG 0.97–0.49

Sevilla

LLWWW

01Celta VigoAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.80–1.59
01Real MadridHome · 17 May 2026
xG 0.72–1.00
32VillarrealAway · 13 May 2026
xG 0.87–0.83
21EspanyolHome · 9 May 2026
xG 1.38–0.61
10Real SociedadHome · 4 May 2026
xG 1.82–0.16

How to read the Athletic Club vs Sevilla probabilities

Athletic Club vs Sevilla (La Liga, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Athletic Club win 49%. Expected goals are 1.47–0.98. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–3.

Athletic Club holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.47–0.98). That shows up as Athletic Club win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off: Sat 22 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Sevilla

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 26%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Athletic Club vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Sevilla?: BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.