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La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Villarreal vs Elche prediction

Strong favourite

Villarreal win 76%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 9 · 0/4 checks hit

Villarreal

0–0

Draw

Elche

1X2

Villarreal win

76%Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 3–1 · score miss · grid peak 2–0

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Villarreal win · 76%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 3–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

VillarrealvsElche
Strong favourite

Villarreal win76%

Open game
Villarreal win
76%
Draw
14%
Elche win
10%
Prediction
3–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8% · Miss

Grid peak 2–0 at 9%

Expected goals
2.81–0.97

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
73%

Under · 0 goals · Miss

BTTS
58%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals0 scored · Miss
Over89%
Under11%
2.5 goals0 scored · Miss
Over73%
Under27%
3.5 goals0 scored · Miss
Over52%
Under48%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Villarreal win 76%, from a +163 Elo gap (1592 vs 1428).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.81-0.97.
  3. 3Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 73%.

Match briefing

Elo

1592

+163

1428

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Villarreal

WWLLL

Avg xG 2.44-1.23

Elche

WLDLL

Avg xG 1.35-1.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.0%
  2. 2218.7%
  3. 3308.5%
  4. 431Prediction8.2%
  5. 5106.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Villarreal versus Elche
Villarreal goals012345
02%2%
16%6%3%
29%9%4%
38%8%4%
46%6%3%
53%3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Villarreal win

Disagrees

Villarreal win: model 76%, fair 1.32, listed 1.49 (66%)

Fair

1.32

76% model

Listed

1.49

66% book

Draw

Draw: model 14%, fair 7.03, listed 5.06 (19%)

Fair

7.03

14% model

Listed

5.06

19% book

Elche win

Elche win: model 10%, fair 9.81, listed 6.58 (15%)

Fair

9.81

10% model

Listed

6.58

15% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Villarreal win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 73%, fair 1.37, listed 1.47 (66%)

Fair
1.37
Listed
1.47

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 27%, fair 3.68, listed 2.88 (34%)

Fair
3.68
Listed
2.88

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.71, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
1.71
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.40, listed 2.21 (42%)

Fair
2.40
Listed
2.21

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Villarreal

  1. 1 Luiz Júnior · G
  2. 6 Pau Navarro · D
  3. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  4. 15 Santiago Mouriño · D
  5. 20 Carlos Romero · D
  6. 10 Alberto Moleiro · M
  7. 14 Santi Comesaña · M
  8. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  9. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  10. 9 Georges Mikautadze · F
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez · F

Elche

  1. 1 Matías Dituro · G
  2. 2 Buba Sangaré · D
  3. 5 Federico Redondo · D
  4. 11 Germán Valera · D
  5. 22 David Affengruber · D
  6. 23 Víctor Chust · D
  7. 8 Marc Aguado · M
  8. 12 Gonzalo Villar · M
  9. 47 Javi Morcillo · M
  10. 14 Fernando Niño · F
  11. 20 Tete Morente · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Villarreal

WWLLL
  • 31Levante UDHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 4.02–0.46

  • 31Málaga CFAway · 17 Sept 2026

    xG 3.33–0.63

  • 12Real BetisHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.89–3.52

  • 23Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–0.83

  • 01Deportivo AlavésAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–0.73

Elche

WLDLL
  • 31EspanyolAway · 18 Sept 2026

    xG 1.61–1.05

  • 23Real MadridHome · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 0.78–3.61

  • 11Athletic ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.84–2.42

  • 23Real SociedadHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 2.47–0.58

  • 23Real Racing ClubAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.03–1.72

How to read the Villarreal vs Elche probabilities

Villarreal vs Elche (La Liga, 17 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Villarreal win 76%. Expected goals are 2.81–0.97. Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Villarreal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.81–0.97). Villarreal win is 76%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 73%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Strong favourite · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Sat 17 Oct, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Villarreal vs Elche

Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Elche?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 14%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Elche?
3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Villarreal vs Elche go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 73% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Elche?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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