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La Liga round 9 results

La Liga round 9 has 6 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 50%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Valencia vs Athletic Club; Villarreal vs Elche; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 9. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 9 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 9 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
6
Favourite-correct
50%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Osasuna vs Real Racing Club92–02–1MissOsasuna win · 56%HitOverMissYesMiss
Valencia vs Athletic Club90–01–2MissAthletic Club win · 41%MissUnderHitNoHit
Real Betis vs FC Barcelona92–51–2MissFC Barcelona win · 61%HitOverHitYesHit
Villarreal vs Elche90–03–1MissVillarreal win · 76%MissOverMissYesMiss
Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid90–11–2MissAtlético Madrid win · 49%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD91–12–1MissDeportivo de A Coruña win · 46%MissUnderHitYesHit

Previous: round 7All La Liga results

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 9 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 9?
6 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 9 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Round 9 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
6 · 6
Log loss
1.0639·0.9708

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0930

RPS
0.1575·0.1393

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0182

Brier
0.6430·0.5831

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0599

Goal MAE
1.09
1X2 accuracy
50%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.56 · 60.7384·0.7147Δ +0.02370.2695·0.262267%Model · Closing line
Under 2.56 · 60.7384·0.7147Δ +0.02370.2695·0.262267%Model · Closing line
BTTS6 · 60.6948·0.7184Δ -0.02360.2510·0.263150%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.