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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club Prediction

· Estadio Abanca Balaídos · Celta Vigo predictions · Athletic Club predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigovsACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win 48%

Celta Vigo win
48%
Draw
28%
Athletic Club win
25%
Celta Vigo win %
48%
Draw %
28%
Athletic Club win %
25%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Celta Vigo win 48%, from a +14 Elo gap (1530 vs 1516).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.45-0.97.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Marcos Alonso suspended and 3 other absences.
Elo

1530 +14 1516

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

La Liga table
Out
  • Marcos Alonso · Celta Vigo
  • Borja Iglesias · Celta Vigo
  • Beñat Prados · Athletic Club
  • Dani Vivian · Athletic Club
XI

Predicted XI

3-4-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Celta VigoW D W D L0.94-1.60 xG

Athletic ClubD L L D L1.12-1.49 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win · 48%

Expected goals

1.45–0.97

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Athletic Club
Celta Vigo goals012345
010%8%4%
112%13%6%
29%9%4%
35%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%
BTTS %
48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.1%
  2. 1-012.3%
  3. 0-09.5%
  4. 2-09.4%
  5. 2-19.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Out

  • Borja Iglesias · F · Muscle Injury

Suspended

  • Marcos Alonso · D · red card suspension

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club

Out

  • Beñat Prados · M · Thigh Injury
  • Dani Vivian · D · Groin Injury

Doubtful

  • Andoni Gorosabel · D · Physical Discomfort

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo3-4-3

  1. 13Ionuț RaduG
  2. 2Carl StarfeltD
  3. 15Álvaro NúñezD
  4. 20Javi RodríguezD
  5. 29Yoel LagoD
  6. 5Sergio CarreiraM
  7. 8Miguel RománM
  8. 14Aleix FebasM
  9. 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
  10. 9Ferrán JutglàF
  11. 39Jones El-AbdellaouiF

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club4-2-3-1

  1. 1Unai SimónG
  2. 5Yeray ÁlvarezD
  3. 12Jesús AresoD
  4. 14Aymeric LaporteD
  5. 17Yuri BerchicheD
  6. 8Oihan SancetM
  7. 9Iñaki WilliamsM
  8. 10Nico WilliamsM
  9. 16Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaM
  10. 28Peio CanalesM
  11. 11Gorka GuruzetaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigoW D W D L

  • H · Osasuna · 27 Aug 20261-00.14-2.60 xG
  • A · Valencia · 22 Aug 20260-00.66-0.58 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 23 May 20261-01.59-0.80 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 17 May 20261-10.15-2.49 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 12 May 20262-32.18-1.52 xG

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubD L L D L

  • A · FC Barcelona · 27 Aug 20260-00.25-4.23 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 22 Aug 20261-31.25-0.41 xG
  • A · Real Madrid · 23 May 20262-40.81-1.90 xG
  • H · Celta Vigo · 17 May 20261-12.49-0.15 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 13 May 20260-20.82-0.76 xG

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 30 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Celta Vigo win 48%. Expected goals are 1.45–0.97. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Celta Vigo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.45–0.97). That shows up as Celta Vigo win at 48%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 28%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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