Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 55%. Home 55%, draw 24%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna prediction

Clear lean

Atlético Madrid win 55%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Published 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

Atlético Madrid

4–0

Atlético Madrid won

Osasuna

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

55%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Atlético Madrid win · 55%

Actual Atlético Madrid won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 4–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Atlético MadridvsOsasuna

Clear lean

Atlético Madrid win55%

Atlético Madrid win: 55%
Draw: 24%
Osasuna win: 21%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.71–0.95
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Atlético Madrid win 55%, from a +165 Elo gap (1634 vs 1470).
2Expected goals 1.71-0.95.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%.
4Julián Alvarez listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1634
+165
1470
La Liga table
Out: Atlético Madrid2 out
Julián Alvarez
Pablo Barrios
Osasuna3 out
Aimar Oroz
Jorge Herrando
Moi Gómez
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/5-4-1
Last 5: Atlético Madrid
WLWDW
Avg xG 1.12-1.27
Osasuna
LLWWD
Avg xG 1.49-0.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal11.9%
21111.4%
32010.2%
421Prediction9.7%
5007.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Atlético Madrid versus Osasuna
Atlético Madrid goals	0	1	2
0	7%	7%	3%
1	12%	11%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:08 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

Disagrees

Fair

1.81

55% model

Listed

1.35

73% book

Draw

Fair

4.17

24% model

Listed

5.60

18% book

Osasuna win

Fair

4.80

21% model

Listed

10.50

9% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Atlético Madrid win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.01
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.99
Listed: 2.28

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.99
Listed: 1.98

BTTS no

Fair: 2.01
Listed: 1.77

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Atlético Madrid2 out

Julián AlvarezOutMuscle Injury
Pablo BarriosOutMuscle Injury

Osasuna3 out

Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
Moi GómezOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Atlético Madrid

Osasuna

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Atlético Madrid

4-4-2

Osasuna

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Atlético Madrid

WLWDW

30Real SociedadAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.05–0.27
03Athletic ClubAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.41
31SevillaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.93–0.90
22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.78–3.60
20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.15

Osasuna

LLWWD

02EspanyolHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.87–1.42
25Deportivo AlavésAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.20
10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.68–0.68
21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31

How to read the Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna probabilities

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Atlético Madrid win 55%. Expected goals are 1.71–0.95. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–0.

Atlético Madrid is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.71–0.95). Atlético Madrid win is 55%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Clear lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 55%. Home 55%, draw 24%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.