Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 24%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna prediction

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 54%

Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Published 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Atlético MadridvsOsasuna

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win54%

Atlético Madrid win: 54%
Draw: 24%
Osasuna win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.71–0.99
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 54%, from a +148 Elo gap (1628 vs 1480).
2Expected goals 1.71-0.99.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Alexander Sørloth listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1628
+148
1480
La Liga table
Out: Atlético Madrid1 out
Alexander Sørloth
Osasuna3 out
Aimar Oroz
Jorge Herrando
Moi Gómez
XI: Last league XI
4-4-2/4-2-2-2
Last 5: Atlético Madrid
LWDWL
Avg xG 0.94-1.71
Osasuna
LWWDL
Avg xG 1.42-0.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.6%
21011.3%
3209.8%
421Prediction9.7%
5006.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Atlético Madrid versus Osasuna
Atlético Madrid goals	0	1	2
0	7%	6%	3%
1	11%	12%	6%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 9 Sept 2026, 17:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

Disagrees

Fair

1.85

54% model

Listed

1.44

65% book

Draw

Fair

4.12

24% model

Listed

4.40

21% book

Osasuna win

Fair

4.64

22% model

Listed

6.50

14% book

The model disagrees with the listed Atlético Madrid win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.77

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.83

BTTS no

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.88

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Atlético Madrid1 out

Alexander SørlothOutMuscle Injury

Osasuna3 out

Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
Moi GómezOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Atlético Madrid

4-4-2

Osasuna

4-2-2-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Atlético Madrid

LWDWL

03Athletic ClubAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.41
31SevillaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.93–0.90
22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.78–3.60
20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.15
15VillarrealAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.16–2.48

Osasuna

LWWDL

25Deportivo AlavésAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.20
10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.68–0.68
21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31
01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.51–0.27

How to read the Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna probabilities

Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Atlético Madrid win 54%. Expected goals are 1.71–0.99. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Atlético Madrid holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.71–0.99). That shows up as Atlético Madrid win at 54%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 9 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 24%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.