Sevilla crestSevillavsAM
Atlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridFinal 1–3·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Sevilla
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Madrid
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.13
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageSpain · la-v1.1.0-elo · Round 3
La Liga round 3 results
La Liga round 3 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. Favourite-correct is 80%; exact score hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Levante UD vs Real Betis. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
La Liga round 3 prediction results
Expected90 La Liga round 3 prediction results: 5 scored matches, favourite-correct 80%, exact score hits 1. Predicted score vs final score for every fixture. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.
- Matches in view
- 5
- Favourite-correct
- 80%
- Game pick hit rate
- 40%
- Exact score hits
- 1
Previous: round 2All La Liga results
Sevilla crestSevillavsAMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid
Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsE
Espanyol crestEspanyolFinal 2–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Sociedad win
Hit- Sociedad
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Espanyol
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Levante UD crestLevante UDvsRB
Real Betis crestReal BetisFinal 5–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick Real Betis win
Miss- UD
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.43
- xG away
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 60%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsV
Villarreal crestVillarrealFinal 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Alavés
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Villarreal
- 35%
- xG home
- 1.24
- xG away
- 1.20
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsE
Elche crestElcheFinal 3–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Racing Club win
Hit- Club
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Elche
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.40
- xG away
- 1.05
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageLa Liga round 3 questions
How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 3?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 80% and 1 exact scores hit. That is a small sample; log loss on the frozen 909-match set is the better quality number.
Where are the La Liga round 3 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3.
la-v1.1.0-elo
La Liga
Validation
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
- Matches
- 1140
- Log loss
- 0.9732
- RPS
- 0.1944
- ECE
- 0.0260
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Frozen official baseline la-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5316 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize. The reliability diagram is favourite probability vs how often that favourite won.
Live season 2026/27 · round 3
- Matches scored
- 25
- Log loss
- 0.9765
- RPS
- 0.1896
- 1X2 accuracy
- 52%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.