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La Liga round 3 results

La Liga round 3 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 70%; prediction hits 3. Favourites that did not land: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia; Levante UD vs Real Betis. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 3. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 3 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 3 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
70%
Prediction hits
3
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
FC Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano35–22–1MissFC Barcelona win · 71%HitOverHitYesHit
Osasuna vs Getafe31–01–0HitOsasuna win · 47%HitUnderHitNoHit
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club30–22–1MissCelta Vigo win · 48%MissUnderHitNoHit
Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia33–11–1MissValencia win · 40%MissOverHitYesHit
Real Madrid vs Málaga CF34–04–0HitReal Madrid win · 91%HitOverHitNoHit
Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid31–31–1MissAtlético Madrid win · 39%HitUnderMissNoMiss
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol32–12–1HitReal Sociedad win · 41%HitUnderMissYesHit
Levante UD vs Real Betis35–21–2MissReal Betis win · 39%MissOverHitYesHit
Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal31–01–1MissDeportivo Alavés win · 37%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Real Racing Club vs Elche33–22–1MissReal Racing Club win · 44%HitUnderMissNoMiss

Previous: round 2All La Liga resultsNext: round 4

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 3 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 3?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 70% and 3 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 3 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Round 3 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
0.8330·0.7685

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0645

RPS
0.2110·0.1862

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0248

Brier
0.4866·0.4420

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0446

Goal MAE
1.06
1X2 accuracy
70%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.510 · 80.5764·0.5598Δ -0.01390.1949·0.188470%Model · Closing line
Under 2.510 · 80.5764·0.5598Δ -0.01390.1949·0.188470%Model · Closing line
BTTS10 · 80.6183·0.6378Δ -0.04020.2132·0.222670%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.