La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction

Wed 26 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon · Bernabéu · Real Madrid predictions · Real Sociedad predictions

Published 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 3/4 checks hit

Real Madrid

4–1

Real Madrid won

Real Sociedad

1X2

Real Madrid win

77%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 2-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Real Madrid win · 77%

Actual Real Madrid won

Modal score

Miss

Predicted 2-0

Actual 4–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Real MadridvsRS

Real Sociedad

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Real Madrid win 77% · Open game

Real Madrid win: 77%
Draw: 15%
Real Sociedad win: 8%

Real Madrid win %: 77%
Draw %: 15%
Real Sociedad win %: 8%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Real Madrid win 77%, from a +250 Elo gap (1742 vs 1492).
2Expected goals 2.65-0.78.
3Modal score 2-0 at 11%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 66%.
5Aurélien Tchouaméni listed out and 8 other absences.

Elo

1742 +250 1492

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

La Liga table

Out

Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid
Endrick · Real Madrid
Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad
Álvaro Odriozola · Real Sociedad

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Real MadridW W W W L1.61-0.94 xG

Real SociedadL D L D D1.33-1.87 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 11% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Real Madrid win · 77% · Hit

Expected goals

2.65–0.78

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Madrid versus Real Sociedad
Real Madrid goals	0	1	2
0	4%	2%
1	8%	7%	3%
2	11%	9%	3%
3	10%	8%	3%
4	7%	5%	2%
5	4%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 66%
BTTS %: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

2-0Modal11.4%
3-010.1%
2-18.9%
1-08.4%
3-17.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RMReal Madrid crestReal Madrid

Out

Aurélien Tchouaméni · M · Muscle Injury
Endrick · F · Muscle Injury
Ferland Mendy · D · Ligament Injury
Raúl Asencio · D · Shin Injury
Rodrygo · F · ACL Knee Injury
Thiago Pitarch · M · Knee Injury
Éder Militão · D

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Out

Pablo Marín · M · Muscle Injury
Álvaro Odriozola · D · ACL Knee Injury

Doubtful

Jon Gorrotxategi · M · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RMReal Madrid crestReal Madrid4-2-3-1

1Thibaut CourtoisG
4Dean HuijsenD
16Ibrahima KonatéD
18Álvaro CarrerasD
24Denzel DumfriesD
5Jude BellinghamM
7Vinícius JúniorM
8Federico ValverdeM
15Arda GülerM
20Bernardo SilvaM
10Kylian MbappéF

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad4-2-3-1

1Álex RemiroG
2Jon AramburuD
17Sergio GómezD
31Jon MartinD
34Luken BeitiaD
8Beñat TurrientesM
12Job OchiengM
14Takefusa KuboM
21Yangel HerreraM
24Luka SučićM
10Mikel OyarzabalF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RMReal Madrid crestReal MadridW W W W L

A · Espanyol · 22 Aug 20262-12.92-1.12 xG
H · Athletic Club · 23 May 20264-21.90-0.81 xG
A · Sevilla · 17 May 20261-01.00-0.72 xG
H · Real Oviedo · 14 May 20262-01.36-1.04 xG
A · FC Barcelona · 10 May 20260-20.85-1.01 xG

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadL D L D D

A · Real Betis · 21 Aug 20260-11.36-1.24 xG
A · Espanyol · 23 May 20261-11.40-2.41 xG
H · Valencia · 17 May 20263-41.15-1.67 xG
A · Girona FC · 14 May 20261-10.33-2.11 xG
H · Real Betis · 9 May 20262-22.40-1.94 xG

How to read the Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad probabilities

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 26 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — Real Madrid win 77%. Expected goals are 2.65–0.78. Modal score 2-0 (11%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–1.

Real Madrid is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.65–0.78). Real Madrid win is 77% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 11%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 66%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Real Madrid win
Kick-off: Wed 26 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Who is favourite for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Real Madrid win at 77%. Home 77%, draw 15%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 11% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.