Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 7 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Slight lean

Osasuna win 46%

Sat 19 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Estadio El Sadar

Published 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

OsasunavsRayo Vallecano

Slight lean

Osasuna win46%

Osasuna win: 46%
Draw: 26%
Rayo Vallecano win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.56–1.16
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Osasuna win 46%, from a -35 Elo gap (1470 vs 1505).
2Expected goals 1.56-1.16.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Aimar Oroz listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1470
-35
1505
La Liga table
Out: Osasuna3 out
Aimar Oroz
Jorge Herrando
Moi Gómez
Rayo Vallecano4 out
Augusto Batalla
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Luiz Felipe
+1 more
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Osasuna
LLWWD
Avg xG 1.49-0.95
Rayo Vallecano
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.27-2.07

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.3%
2109.9%
321Prediction9.3%
4208.0%
5017.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	7%	4%
1	10%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:08 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Fair

2.16

46% model

Listed

2.23

42% book

Draw

Fair

3.87

26% model

Listed

3.23

29% book

Rayo Vallecano win

Fair

3.58

28% model

Listed

3.21

29% book

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (small). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.96
Listed: 2.10

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 1.74

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.80

BTTS no

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 1.92

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Osasuna3 out

Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
Moi GómezOutMuscle Injury

Rayo Vallecano4 out

Augusto BatallaOutBroken Leg
Jozhua VertrouwdOutHamstring Injury
Luiz FelipeOutHamstring Injury
Randy NtekaOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Osasuna

4-2-3-1

Rayo Vallecano

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna

LLWWD

02EspanyolHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.87–1.42
25Deportivo AlavésAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.20
10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.68–0.68
21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31

Rayo Vallecano

LWLDL

14Real MadridAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–2.62
32Real Racing ClubHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.61–0.48
25FC BarcelonaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.21–3.04
11Deportivo AlavésHome · 20 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–2.00
12SevillaAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.89–2.19

How to read the Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano probabilities

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Osasuna win 46%. Expected goals are 1.56–1.16. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.56–1.16). That shows up as Osasuna win at 46%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.