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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Levante UD Prediction

· La Rosaleda · Málaga CF predictions · Levante UD predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Málaga CF crestvsLevante UD crest

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Levante UD win 39%

Málaga CF win
31%
Draw
30%
Levante UD win
39%
Málaga CF win %
31%
Draw %
30%
Levante UD win %
39%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Levante UD win 39%, from a -91 Elo gap (1363 vs 1454).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.06-1.24.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Adrián Niño listed out and 3 other absences.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Málaga CF win31%3.232.2841%
Draw30%3.383.2329%
Levante UD win39%2.533.1130%

The model disagrees with the listed Málaga CF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.540%2.472.1047%
Under 2.560%1.681.8553%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes47%2.121.7553%
BTTS no53%1.891.9847%
Elo

1363 -91 1454

Málaga CF vs Levante UD

La Liga table
Out
  • Adrián Niño · Málaga CF
  • Diego Murillo · Málaga CF
XI

Last league XI

4-4-2 / 4-1-4-1

Last 5

Málaga CFL D L L L0.56-0.87 xG

Levante UDD L L W W1.61-1.25 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Levante UD win · 39%

Expected goals

1.06–1.24

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Levante UD
Málaga CF goals012345
011%12%8%3%
110%14%8%3%
26%7%4%
32%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
40%
BTTS %
47%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.8%
  2. 0-111.7%
  3. 0-010.7%
  4. 1-010.0%
  5. 1-28.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF

Out

  • Adrián Niño · F · Thigh Injury
  • Diego Murillo · D · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Fernando Calero · D · Broken Rib
  • Moussa Diarra · D · Muscle Injury

Levante UD crestLevante UD

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF4-4-2

  1. 1Alfonso HerreroG
  2. 3Carlos PugaD
  3. 4Einar GalileaD
  4. 15Ángel RecioD
  5. 31Rafa GarridoD
  6. 10David LarrubiaM
  7. 11Joaquín MuñozM
  8. 14Rafa RodriguezM
  9. 23Izan MerinoM
  10. 8Carlos DotorF
  11. 9ChupeteF

Levante UD crestLevante UD4-1-4-1

  1. 13Mathew RyanG
  2. 2Aïssa MandiD
  3. 4Adrián de la FuenteD
  4. 23Manuel SánchezD
  5. 29Nacho PérezD
  6. 7Roger BruguéM
  7. 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
  8. 18Enzo BardeliM
  9. 20Oriol ReyM
  10. 24Thiago FernándezM
  11. 9Iván RomeroF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Málaga CF crestMálaga CFL D L L L

  • A · Real Madrid · 30 Aug 20260-30.72-2.40 xG
  • H · Deportivo de A Coruña · 24 Aug 20261-11.95-1.12 xG
  • A · Atlético Madrid · 19 Aug 20260-20.15-0.82 xG
  • H · Getafe · 19 May 20180-10.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 13 May 20181-40.00-0.00 xG

Levante UD crestLevante UDD L L W W

  • A · Osasuna · 24 Aug 20260-01.31-0.67 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 16 Aug 20260-30.28-1.55 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 23 May 20261-22.53-1.57 xG
  • H · Mallorca · 17 May 20262-02.39-0.30 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 12 May 20263-21.52-2.18 xG

How to read the Málaga CF vs Levante UD probabilities

Málaga CF vs Levante UD (La Liga, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Levante UD win 39%. Expected goals are 1.06–1.24. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Málaga CF and Levante UD are close on expected goals (1.06–1.24), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 40%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Levante UD win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 39%. Home 31%, draw 30%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?
1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Málaga CF vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 40% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Levante UD?
BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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