Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 43%. Home 30%, draw 27%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Málaga CF vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Levante UD?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Levante UD prediction

Slight lean

Levante UD win 43%

Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · La Rosaleda

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit

Málaga CF

0–0

Draw

Levante UD

1X2

Levante UD win

43%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Levante UD win · 43%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Málaga CFvsLevante UD

Slight lean

Levante UD win43%

Málaga CF win: 30%
Draw: 27%
Levante UD win: 43%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.07–1.35
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Levante UD win 43%, from a -101 Elo gap (1363 vs 1464).
2Expected goals 1.07-1.35.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Adrián Niño listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1363
-101
1464
La Liga table
Out: Málaga CF4 out
Adrián Niño
Diego Murillo
Fernando Calero
+1 more
Levante UD1 out
Etta Eyong
XI: Expected XI
16 changes from the expected XI
4-3-3/4-1-4-1
Last 5: Málaga CF
LDLLL
Avg xG 0.56-0.91
Levante UD
WDLLW
Avg xG 1.85-1.20

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.9%
20112.0%
3109.5%
400Result8.9%
512Prediction8.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Levante UD
Málaga CF goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	12%	8%	4%
1	10%	13%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Málaga CF win

Fair

3.37

30% model

Listed

2.48

40% book

Draw

Fair

3.67

27% model

Listed

3.40

29% book

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Fair

2.32

43% model

Listed

3.14

31% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.30
Listed: 1.90

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 2.04

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 1.95
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Málaga CF4 out

Adrián NiñoOutThigh Injury
Diego MurilloOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Fernando CaleroOutBroken Rib
Julen LobeteOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Levante UD1 out

Etta EyongOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Málaga CF

Levante UD

Confirmed XIConfirmed16 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Málaga CF

4-3-3

Levante UD

4-1-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Málaga CF

LDLLL

04Real MadridAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.71–2.62
11Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.95–1.12
02Atlético MadridAway · 19 Aug 2026
xG 0.15–0.82
01GetafeHome · 19 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
14EspanyolAway · 13 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

Levante UD

WDLLW

52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.76–1.92
00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–0.67
03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.28–1.55
12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026
xG 2.53–1.57
20MallorcaHome · 17 May 2026
xG 2.39–0.30

How to read the Málaga CF vs Levante UD probabilities

Málaga CF vs Levante UD (La Liga, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Levante UD win 43%. Expected goals are 1.07–1.35. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–0.

Levante UD holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.07–1.35). That shows up as Levante UD win at 43%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Levante UD win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 43%. Home 30%, draw 27%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Levante UD?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Málaga CF vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Levante UD?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.