Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 41%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 9 · 2/4 checks hit

Valencia

0–0

Draw

Athletic Club

1X2

Athletic Club win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Athletic Club win · 41%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

ValenciavsAthletic Club
Slight lean

Athletic Club win41%

Valencia win
31%
Draw
27%
Athletic Club win
41%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 8% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.10–1.30

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS
49%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals0 scored · Miss
Over69%
Under31%
2.5 goals0 scored · Hit
Over43%
Under57%
3.5 goals0 scored · Hit
Over22%
Under78%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 41%, from a -39 Elo gap (1481 vs 1520).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.10-1.30.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1481

-39

1520

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Valencia

LWLLL

Avg xG 0.87-2.03

Athletic Club

DDWWL

Avg xG 1.70-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.0%
  2. 20111.8%
  3. 3109.9%
  4. 400Result9.0%
  5. 512Prediction8.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Valencia versus Athletic Club
Valencia goals012345
09%12%8%3%
110%13%8%4%
25%7%5%2%
33%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Valencia win

Valencia win: model 31%, fair 3.19, listed 3.55 (28%)

Fair

3.19

31% model

Listed

3.55

28% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.64, listed 3.45 (29%)

Fair

3.64

27% model

Listed

3.45

29% book

Athletic Club win

Athletic Club win: model 41%, fair 2.42, listed 2.25 (44%)

Fair

2.42

41% model

Listed

2.25

44% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.11 (46%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.11

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.80 (54%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.80

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 1.79 (52%)

Fair
2.06
Listed
1.79

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.95

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Valencia

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 5 César Tárrega · D
  3. 14 José Luis Gayà · D
  4. 18 Pepelu · D
  5. 21 Jesús Vázquez · D
  6. 24 Pablo Maffeo · D
  7. 2 Guido Rodríguez · M
  8. 7 Arnaut Danjuma · M
  9. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  10. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  11. 9 Hugo Duro · F

Athletic Club

  1. 1 Unai Simón · G
  2. 4 Aitor Paredes · D
  3. 5 Yeray Álvarez · D
  4. 14 Aymeric Laporte · D
  5. 17 Yuri Berchiche · D
  6. 8 Oihan Sancet · M
  7. 9 Iñaki Williams · M
  8. 10 Nico Williams · M
  9. 16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · M
  10. 23 Robert Navarro · M
  11. 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena · M

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Valencia

LWLLL
  • 23Real SociedadHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.55–2.65

  • 10Deportivo AlavésAway · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 0.65–1.05

  • 01SevillaAway · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 0.10–0.93

  • 05FC BarcelonaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.66–4.08

  • 13Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–1.42

Athletic Club

DDWWL
  • 00Deportivo AlavésHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.65–0.05

  • 11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.42–0.84

  • 30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.41–1.02

  • 20Celta VigoAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–0.75

  • 02FC BarcelonaAway · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 0.25–4.23

How to read the Valencia vs Athletic Club probabilities

Valencia vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 17 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Athletic Club win 41%. Expected goals are 1.10–1.30. Prediction 1–2 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–0.

Valencia and Athletic Club are close on expected goals (1.10–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off
Sat 17 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Valencia vs Athletic Club

Who is favourite for Valencia vs Athletic Club?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 41%. Home 31%, draw 27%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Valencia vs Athletic Club?
1–2 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Valencia vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Valencia vs Athletic Club?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions