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La Liga round 4 results

La Liga round 4 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 0%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Real Betis vs Real Madrid. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.1.0-elo. Round 4. Ledger updated 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
0%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Real Betis vs Real Madrid41–01–2MissReal Madrid win · 53%MissOverMissYesMiss

Previous: round 3All La Liga resultsNext: round 6

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 4?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 0% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 6.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Live season 2026/27 · round 6

Matches scored
32
Log loss
0.9630
RPS
0.1945
Goal MAE
0.92
1X2 accuracy
50%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.