Final 2–3·Elche win 51%
Miss- Elche
- 51%
- Draw
- 31%
- Sociedad
- 18%
- xG home
- 1.23
- xG away
- 0.60
- Over 2.5
- 28%
- BTTS
- 32%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 4 results
La Liga round 4 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 30%; prediction hits 2. Favourites that did not land: Elche vs Real Sociedad; Getafe vs Celta Vigo; Espanyol vs Sevilla; Málaga CF vs Levante UD; Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña; Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid; Real Betis vs Real Madrid. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 4. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
La Liga reliability
Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0180
- Log loss
- 0.9703
- RPS
- 0.1935
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 38% | 242 | +0% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 46% | 385 | +1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 258 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 71% | 138 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 75% | 69 | +1% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 93% | 43 | +9% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 5 | +8% |
La Liga round 4 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 10
- Favourite-correct
- 30%
- Prediction hits
- 2
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche vs Real Sociedad | 4 | 2–3 | 1–0Miss | Elche win · 51%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Getafe vs Celta Vigo | 4 | 1–1 | 1–1Hit | Getafe win · 37%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Espanyol vs Sevilla | 4 | 1–1 | 1–1Hit | Espanyol win · 40%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna | 4 | 5–2 | 2–1Miss | Deportivo Alavés win · 45%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Málaga CF vs Levante UD | 4 | 0–0 | 1–2Miss | Levante UD win · 43%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Valencia vs FC Barcelona | 4 | 0–5 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 62%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Villarreal vs Deportivo de A Coruña | 4 | 2–3 | 2–0Miss | Villarreal win · 70%Miss | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club | 4 | 3–2 | 2–1Miss | Rayo Vallecano win · 52%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid | 4 | 3–0 | 1–1Miss | Atlético Madrid win · 39%Miss | UnderMiss | YesMiss |
| Real Betis vs Real Madrid | 4 | 1–0 | 1–2Miss | Real Madrid win · 53%Miss | OverMiss | YesMiss |
Previous: round 3All La Liga resultsNext: round 5
Match page
Final 1–1·Getafe win 37%
Miss- Getafe
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- Vigo
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.03
- xG away
- 0.94
- Over 2.5
- 32%
- BTTS
- 40%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Espanyol win 40%
Miss- Espanyol
- 40%
- Draw
- 28%
- Sevilla
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.24
- xG away
- 1.09
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 5–2·Deportivo Alavés win 45%
Hit- Alavés
- 45%
- Draw
- 27%
- Osasuna
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.39
- xG away
- 1.04
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 0–0·Levante UD win 43%
Miss- CF
- 30%
- Draw
- 27%
- UD
- 43%
- xG home
- 1.07
- xG away
- 1.35
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 0–5·FC Barcelona win 62%
Hit- Valencia
- 16%
- Draw
- 22%
- Barcelona
- 62%
- xG home
- 0.89
- xG away
- 1.94
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 2–3·Villarreal win 70%
Miss- Villarreal
- 70%
- Draw
- 19%
- Coruña
- 10%
- xG home
- 2.10
- xG away
- 0.67
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 43%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 3–2·Rayo Vallecano win 52%
Hit- Vallecano
- 52%
- Draw
- 25%
- Club
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.71
- xG away
- 1.06
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- BTTS
- 54%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 3–0·Atlético Madrid win 39%
Miss- Club
- 34%
- Draw
- 27%
- Madrid
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.24
- xG away
- 1.34
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–0·Real Madrid win 53%
Miss- Betis
- 23%
- Draw
- 24%
- Madrid
- 53%
- xG home
- 1.10
- xG away
- 1.78
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- BTTS
- 56%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 4 questions
- How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 4?
- 10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 30% and 2 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
- Where are the La Liga round 4 match pages?
- Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
- Can I see other La Liga rounds?
- Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9.
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga
Round 4 · 2026/27
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 10 · 10
- Log loss
- 1.2194·1.1211
- RPS
- 0.2652·0.2444
- Brier
- 0.7263·0.6719
- Goal MAE
- 1.21
- 1X2 accuracy
- 30%
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0983
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0208
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0544
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.7053·0.6572Δ +0.0481 | 0.2545·0.2324 | 60% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.7053·0.6572Δ +0.0481 | 0.2545·0.2324 | 60% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 10 · 10 | 0.7933·0.7494Δ +0.0439 | 0.2988·0.2778 | 20% | Model · Closing line |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.