Skip to main content
E90

La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction

Slight lean

Osasuna win 53%

· Estadio El Sadar

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Osasuna crestOsasunavsEspanyol crestEspanyol
Slight lean

Osasuna win53%

Osasuna win
53%
Draw
25%
Espanyol win
22%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–0 at 12%

Expected goals
1.65–0.97

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Osasuna win 53%, from a +36 Elo gap (1486 vs 1451).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.65-0.97.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%.
  4. 4Aimar Oroz listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Osasuna crest

1486

+36

Espanyol crest

1451

La Liga table
Out

Osasuna crestOsasuna2 out

  • Aimar Oroz
  • Jorge Herrando

Espanyol crestEspanyol1 out

  • Andoni Gorosabel
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Osasuna crestOsasuna

WWDLL

Avg xG 1.44-0.64

Espanyol crestEspanyol

LLWDW

Avg xG 1.33-1.63

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Modal11.9%
  2. 21111.8%
  3. 3209.9%
  4. 421Prediction9.6%
  5. 5007.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Espanyol
Osasuna goals012345
07%7%3%
112%12%6%
210%10%5%
35%5%3%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Osasuna win: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 1.96 (48%)

Fair

1.88

53% model

Listed

1.96

48% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.04, listed 3.36 (28%)

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

3.36

28% book

Espanyol win

Espanyol win: model 22%, fair 4.51, listed 3.78 (25%)

Fair

4.51

22% model

Listed

3.78

25% book

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (small). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 2.20 (44%)

Fair
2.05
Listed
2.20

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.74 (56%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.74

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 1.90 (49%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
1.90

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.81 (51%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.81

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Osasuna crestOsasuna2 out · 1 doubtful

  • Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
  • Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
  • Valentin RosierDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Espanyol crestEspanyol1 out

  • Andoni GorosabelOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Osasuna crestOsasuna

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Sergio Herrera · G
  2. 5 Jorge Herrando · D
  3. 23 Abel Bretones · D
  4. 24 Alejandro Catena · D
  5. 27 Iñigo Arguibide · D
  6. 7 Jon Moncayola · M
  7. 8 Iker Muñoz · M
  8. 10 Aimar Oroz · M
  9. 14 Rubén García · M
  10. 16 Moi Gómez · M
  11. 17 Ante Budimir · F

Espanyol crestEspanyol

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Marko Dmitrović · G
  2. 14 Unai Núñez · D
  3. 16 Vanja Drkušić · D
  4. 21 Roger Hinojo · D
  5. 23 Omar El Hilali · D
  6. 4 Urko González · M
  7. 8 Edu Expósito · M
  8. 22 Álex Calatrava · M
  9. 24 Tyrhys Dolan · M
  10. 28 Javier Hernández · M
  11. 9 Roberto Fernández · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna crestOsasuna

WWDLL
  • 10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.68–0.68

  • 21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 2.60–0.14

  • 00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 0.67–1.31

  • 01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.51–0.27

  • 12EspanyolHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.72–0.79

Espanyol crestEspanyol

LLWDW
  • 12Real SociedadAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.77–1.82

  • 12Real MadridHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–2.92

  • 30Levante UDHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.55–0.28

  • 11Real SociedadHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.41–1.40

  • 21OsasunaAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.79–1.72

How to read the Osasuna vs Espanyol probabilities

Osasuna vs Espanyol (La Liga, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Osasuna win 53%. Expected goals are 1.65–0.97. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.65–0.97). That shows up as Osasuna win at 53%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Espanyol

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 25%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Osasuna vs Espanyol go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions