Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Espanyol?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 26%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Espanyol?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Osasuna vs Espanyol go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Espanyol prediction

Slight lean

Osasuna win 48%

Sat 12 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon · Estadio El Sadar

Published 11 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Osasuna

0–2

Espanyol won

Espanyol

1X2

Osasuna win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Osasuna win · 48%

Actual Espanyol won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

OsasunavsEspanyol

Slight lean

Osasuna win48%

Osasuna win: 48%
Draw: 26%
Espanyol win: 25%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.55–1.05
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Osasuna win 48%, from a +30 Elo gap (1480 vs 1450).
2Expected goals 1.55-1.05.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Aimar Oroz listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1480
+30
1450
La Liga table
Out: Osasuna3 out
Aimar Oroz
Jorge Herrando
Moi Gómez
EspanyolNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
6 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Osasuna
LWWDL
Avg xG 1.42-0.72
Espanyol
DLLWD
Avg xG 1.42-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.4%
21011.1%
321Prediction9.4%
4208.9%
5007.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Espanyol
Osasuna goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	7%	4%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%
2	9%	9%	5%
3	5%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 19:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Fair

2.06

48% model

Listed

6.40

24% book

Draw

Fair

3.83

26% model

Listed

4.60

33% book

Espanyol win

Fair

3.93

25% model

Listed

3.51

43% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.14

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.77

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.82

BTTS no

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.93

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Osasuna3 out

Aimar OrozOutHamstring Injury
Jorge HerrandoOutMuscle Injury
Moi GómezOutMuscle Injury

EspanyolNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 11 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Osasuna

Espanyol

Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Osasuna

4-2-3-1

Espanyol

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna

LWWDL

25Deportivo AlavésAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.20
10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.68–0.68
21Celta VigoAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 2.60–0.14
00Levante UDHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.31
01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.51–0.27

Espanyol

DLLWD

11SevillaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.23–0.53
12Real SociedadAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.77–1.82
12Real MadridHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–2.92
30Levante UDHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–0.28
11Real SociedadHome · 23 May 2026
xG 2.41–1.40

How to read the Osasuna vs Espanyol probabilities

Osasuna vs Espanyol (La Liga, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Osasuna win 48%. Expected goals are 1.55–1.05. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.55–1.05). That shows up as Osasuna win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 11 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 470
Verdict: Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Espanyol

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Espanyol?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 26%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Espanyol?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Osasuna vs Espanyol go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.