Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 21%, away 26%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

BTTS is 69%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche prediction

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win 53%

Mon 17 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon · Estadio Riazor

Published 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit

Deportivo de A Coruña

1–1

Draw

Elche

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

53%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Deportivo de A Coruña win · 53%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo de A CoruñavsElche

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win53%

Open gameBoth likely

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 53%
Draw: 21%
Elche win: 26%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.16–1.49
Over 2.5: 71%
BTTS: 69%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Deportivo de A Coruña win 53%, from a -44 Elo gap (1391 vs 1435).
2Expected goals 2.16-1.49.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 71%.
5Noé Carrillo listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1391
-44
1435
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo de A Coruña1 out
Noé Carrillo
Elche2 out
Grady Diangana
Yago Santiago
XI: Expected XI
16 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
LLDLD
Avg xG 0.00-0.00
Elche
DWLDL
Avg xG 0.87-1.12

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

121Prediction9.0%
211Result8.3%
3226.7%
4316.5%
5126.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Elche
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3
0	3%	4%	3%
1	6%	8%	6%	3%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%
3	4%	7%	5%	2%
4	2%	4%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 15 Sept 2026, 20:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

1.89

53% model

Listed

2.18

44% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

4.86

21% model

Listed

3.09

31% book

Elche win

Fair

3.78

26% model

Listed

3.77

25% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo de A Coruña1 out · 1 doubtful

Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury
Yeremay HernándezDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Elche2 out

Grady DianganaOutKnee Injury
Yago SantiagoOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo de A Coruña

Elche

Confirmed XIConfirmed16 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-2-3-1

Elche

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

LLDLD

12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24VillarrealHome · 12 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
11Celta VigoAway · 5 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24FC BarcelonaHome · 29 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
00LeganésAway · 20 Apr 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

Elche

DWLDL

11Girona FCAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.18–0.58
10GetafeHome · 17 May 2026
xG 0.66–0.11
12Real BetisAway · 12 May 2026
xG 0.40–1.80
11Deportivo AlavésHome · 9 May 2026
xG 1.39–2.05
13Celta VigoAway · 3 May 2026
xG 1.71–1.05

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche (La Liga, 17 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo de A Coruña win 53%. Expected goals are 2.16–1.49. Prediction 2–1 (9%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Deportivo de A Coruña holds a modest expected-goals edge (2.16–1.49). That shows up as Deportivo de A Coruña win at 53%, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 71%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 69%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Deportivo de A Coruña win
Kick-off: Mon 17 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 21%, away 26%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?: 2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?: BTTS is 69%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.