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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal prediction

Balanced

Deportivo Alavés win 37%

· Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Deportivo Alavés

1–0

Deportivo Alavés won

Villarreal

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

37%Hit

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 37%

Actual Deportivo Alavés won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Deportivo AlavésvsVillarreal
Balanced

Deportivo Alavés win37%

Deportivo Alavés win
37%
Draw
29%
Villarreal win
35%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14% · Miss

Expected goals
1.24–1.20

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
44%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS
50%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Deportivo Alavés win 37%, from a -142 Elo gap (1473 vs 1616).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.24-1.20.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1473

-142

1616

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

7 changes from the expected XI

5-3-2/4-4-2
Last 5

Deportivo Alavés

DWLWW

Avg xG 1.47-0.59

Villarreal

DDWLL

Avg xG 1.75-1.26

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction13.6%
  2. 210Result10.2%
  3. 3019.8%
  4. 4009.3%
  5. 5218.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Villarreal
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
09%10%6%3%
110%14%8%3%
27%8%5%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Deportivo Alavés win: model 37%, fair 2.73, listed 3.11 (31%)

Fair

2.73

37% model

Listed

3.11

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.49, listed 3.45 (28%)

Fair

3.49

29% model

Listed

3.45

28% book

Villarreal win

Disagrees

Villarreal win: model 35%, fair 2.88, listed 2.28 (42%)

Fair

2.88

35% model

Listed

2.28

42% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Villarreal win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo Alavés

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 16 Ville Koski · D
  4. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  5. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · D
  6. 24 Victor Parada · D · changed
  7. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  8. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  9. 18 Jon Guridi · M · changed
  10. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  11. 11 Toni Martínez · F

Villarreal

  1. 25 Arnau Tenas · G · changed
  2. 4 Rafa Marín · D · changed
  3. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  4. 15 Santiago Mouriño · D
  5. 24 Alfonso Pedraza · D · changed
  6. 14 Santi Comesaña · M
  7. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  8. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  9. 9 Georges Mikautadze · F
  10. 10 Alberto Moleiro · F · changed
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo Alavés

5-3-2

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 7 Ángel Pérez · D
  3. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  4. 16 Ville Koski · D
  5. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  6. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · D
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 18 Mikel Rodriguez · M · changed
  9. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F · changed

Villarreal

4-4-2

  1. 1 Luiz Júnior · G · changed
  2. 8 Juan Foyth · D · changed
  3. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  4. 15 Santiago Mouriño · D
  5. 20 Carlos Romero · D · changed
  6. 14 Santi Comesaña · M
  7. 17 Tajon Buchanan · M · changed
  8. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  9. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  10. 7 Gerard Moreno · F · changed
  11. 9 Georges Mikautadze · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

DWLWW
  • 11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 2.00–0.42

  • 30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.93–0.24

  • 12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.63–1.34

  • 10Real OviedoAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.06–0.33

  • 10FC BarcelonaHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 0.72–0.60

Villarreal

DDWLL
  • 22Atlético MadridAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.60–0.78

  • 22Real Racing ClubAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.87–2.01

  • 51Atlético MadridHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 2.48–1.16

  • 02Rayo VallecanoAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.97–1.49

  • 23SevillaHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 0.83–0.87

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal (La Liga, 28 Aug 2026): Balanced. Deportivo Alavés win 37%. Expected goals are 1.24–1.20. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal are close on expected goals (1.24–1.20), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 29%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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