Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo prediction

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win 45%

Thu 3 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon · Reale Arena

Published 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

Real Sociedad

0–0

Draw

Celta Vigo

1X2

Real Sociedad win

45%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Real Sociedad win · 45%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Real SociedadvsCelta Vigo

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win45%

Real Sociedad win: 45%
Draw: 27%
Celta Vigo win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.07
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Real Sociedad win 45%, from a -9 Elo gap (1496 vs 1504).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.07.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Jon Pacheco listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1496
-9
1504
La Liga table
Out: Real Sociedad3 out
Jon Pacheco
Pablo Marín
Álvaro Odriozola
Celta Vigo2 out
Aleix Febas
Borja Iglesias
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-3
Last 5: Real Sociedad
WLLDL
Avg xG 1.26-1.85
Celta Vigo
LLDWD
Avg xG 0.66-1.85

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.0%
21011.4%
321Prediction8.9%
400Result8.7%
5018.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Sociedad versus Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	9%	5%
1	11%	13%	7%	2%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Sociedad win

Disagrees

Fair

2.24

45% model

Listed

1.80

55% book

Draw

Fair

3.65

27% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Celta Vigo win

Fair

3.57

28% model

Listed

5.00

20% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Real Sociedad win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.21
Listed: 1.89

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.98

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.00
Listed: 1.75

BTTS no

Fair: 2.00
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Real Sociedad3 out

Jon PachecoOutUnknown
Pablo MarínOutMuscle Injury
Álvaro OdriozolaOutACL Knee Injury

Celta Vigo2 out

Aleix FebasOutRib Injury
Borja IglesiasOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Real Sociedad

Celta Vigo

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Real Sociedad

4-2-3-1

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Sociedad

WLLDL

21EspanyolHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–0.77
14Real MadridAway · 26 Aug 2026
xG 0.57–3.14
01Real BetisAway · 21 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–1.24
11EspanyolAway · 23 May 2026
xG 1.40–2.41
34ValenciaHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.15–1.67

Celta Vigo

LLDWD

02Athletic ClubHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.75–2.78
12OsasunaHome · 27 Aug 2026
xG 0.14–2.60
00ValenciaAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.58
10SevillaHome · 23 May 2026
xG 1.59–0.80
11Athletic ClubAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.15–2.49

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 3 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Real Sociedad win 45%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.07. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Real Sociedad holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–1.07). That shows up as Real Sociedad win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Real Sociedad win
Kick-off: Thu 3 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.