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La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia prediction

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win 53%

· Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Deportivo AlavésvsValencia
Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win53%

Deportivo Alavés win
53%
Draw
25%
Valencia win
22%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.65–0.98

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Deportivo Alavés win 53%, from a +2 Elo gap (1490 vs 1488).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.65-0.98.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Facundo Garcés listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1490

+2

1488

La Liga table
Out

Deportivo Alavés2 out

  • Facundo Garcés
  • Mikel Rodriguez

Valencia3 out

  • Guido Rodríguez
  • Justin De Haas
  • Umar Sadiq
XI
Last league XI
3-5-2/5-4-1
Last 5

Deportivo Alavés

WWDWL

Avg xG 1.50-1.08

Valencia

LLLDW

Avg xG 1.02-1.61

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.9%
  2. 21011.7%
  3. 3209.8%
  4. 421Prediction9.6%
  5. 5007.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Valencia
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
07%7%3%
112%12%6%
210%10%5%
35%5%3%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Disagrees

Deportivo Alavés win: model 53%, fair 1.89, listed 2.22 (42%)

Fair

1.89

53% model

Listed

2.22

42% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.00, listed 3.01 (31%)

Fair

4.00

25% model

Listed

3.01

31% book

Valencia win

Valencia win: model 22%, fair 4.51, listed 3.51 (27%)

Fair

4.51

22% model

Listed

3.51

27% book

The model disagrees with the listed Deportivo Alavés win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 2.30 (41%)

Fair
2.05
Listed
2.30

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.62 (59%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.62

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 51%, fair 1.98, listed 1.91 (49%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.91

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 49%, fair 2.02, listed 1.80 (51%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
1.80

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés2 out

  • Facundo GarcésOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Valencia3 out · 6 doubtful

  • Guido RodríguezOutMuscle Injury
  • Justin De HaasOutAnkle Injury
  • Umar SadiqOutHamstring Injury
  • Aliou DiengDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • David OtorbiDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • Dimitri FoulquierDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • Jesús VázquezDoubtfulAnkle Injury
  • Luis RiojaDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • Mouctar DiakhabyDoubtfulHamstring Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Deportivo Alavés

3-5-2

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 16 Ville Koski · D
  4. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  5. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  6. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  7. 10 Carles Aleñá · M
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  9. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · M
  10. 9 Mariano Díaz · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F

Valencia

5-4-1

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 4 Mouctar Diakhaby · D
  3. 18 Pepelu · D
  4. 21 Jesús Vázquez · D
  5. 22 Arnau Martínez · D
  6. 24 Pablo Maffeo · D
  7. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  8. 15 Aliou Dieng · M
  9. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  10. 27 David Otorbi · M
  11. 7 Arnaut Danjuma · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

WWDWL
  • 52OsasunaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–1.64

  • 10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 0.73–1.74

  • 11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 2.00–0.42

  • 30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.93–0.24

  • 12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.63–1.34

Valencia

LLLDW
  • 05FC BarcelonaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.66–4.08

  • 13Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–1.42

  • 01Real BetisHome · 25 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–0.71

  • 00Celta VigoHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.58–0.66

  • 31FC BarcelonaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.35–1.18

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia (La Liga, 15 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo Alavés win 53%. Expected goals are 1.65–0.98. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Deportivo Alavés holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.65–0.98). That shows up as Deportivo Alavés win at 53%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Sept 2026, 20:18 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sept, 19:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 25%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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