Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 24%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia prediction

Clear lean

Deportivo Alavés win 56%

Tue 15 Sept, 19:00 Lisbon · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published 15 Sept 2026, 17:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 6 · 2/4 checks hit

Deportivo Alavés

0–1

Valencia won

Valencia

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

56%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 56%

Actual Valencia won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo AlavésvsValencia

Clear lean

Deportivo Alavés win56%

Deportivo Alavés win: 56%
Draw: 24%
Valencia win: 20%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.69–0.92
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Deportivo Alavés win 56%, from a +1 Elo gap (1482 vs 1481).
2Expected goals 1.69-0.92.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%.
4Aitor Mañas listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1482
+1
1481
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo Alavés3 out
Aitor Mañas
Facundo Garcés
Mikel Rodriguez
Valencia3 out
César Tárrega
Mouctar Diakhaby
Umar Sadiq
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
3-5-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Deportivo Alavés
LWWDW
Avg xG 1.58-1.10
Valencia
LLLLD
Avg xG 0.77-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal12.3%
21111.6%
32010.5%
421Prediction9.7%
5007.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Valencia
Deportivo Alavés goals	0	1	2
0	8%	7%	3%
1	12%	12%	5%
2	11%	10%	4%
3	6%	5%	2%
4	3%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:08 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Fair

1.80

56% model

Listed

1.77

56% book

Draw

Fair

4.09

24% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Valencia win

Fair

4.99

20% model

Listed

6.00

17% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.10

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.80

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.95

BTTS no

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.80

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés3 out

Aitor MañasOutHead Injury
Facundo GarcésOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Valencia3 out · 1 doubtful

César TárregaOutHamstring Injury
Mouctar DiakhabyOutHamstring Injury
Umar SadiqOutHamstring Injury
Dimitri FoulquierDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Sept 2026, 17:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo Alavés

Valencia

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo Alavés

3-5-2

Valencia

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDW

12Real Racing ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.04–1.46
52OsasunaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–1.64
10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.73–1.74
11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026
xG 2.00–0.42
30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.93–0.24

Valencia

LLLLD

01SevillaAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.10–0.93
05FC BarcelonaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.66–4.08
13Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.40–1.42
01Real BetisHome · 25 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–0.71
00Celta VigoHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.58–0.66

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia (La Liga, 15 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Deportivo Alavés win 56%. Expected goals are 1.69–0.92. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–1.

Deportivo Alavés is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.69–0.92). Deportivo Alavés win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Sept 2026, 17:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 738
Verdict: Clear lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off: Tue 15 Sept, 19:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 24%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.