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La Liga round 2 results

La Liga round 2 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña; Osasuna vs Levante UD; Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal; Valencia vs Celta Vigo; Athletic Club vs Sevilla; Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 2. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 2 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 2 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña21–11–0MissMálaga CF win · 44%MissUnderHitNoMiss
Osasuna vs Levante UD20–02–1MissOsasuna win · 44%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Elche vs FC Barcelona20–51–2MissFC Barcelona win · 54%HitUnderMissNoHit
Getafe vs Real Racing Club21–01–1MissGetafe win · 39%HitUnderHitNoHit
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal22–22–1MissAtlético Madrid win · 41%MissUnderMissYesHit
Espanyol vs Real Madrid21–21–2HitReal Madrid win · 55%HitUnderMissYesHit
Valencia vs Celta Vigo20–02–1MissValencia win · 48%MissUnderHitNoHit
Athletic Club vs Sevilla21–32–1MissAthletic Club win · 49%MissUnderMissNoMiss
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad21–02–1MissReal Betis win · 56%HitOverMissYesMiss
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés21–12–1MissRayo Vallecano win · 51%MissUnderHitNoMiss

Previous: round 1All La Liga resultsNext: round 3

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 2 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 2?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 2 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Round 2 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
1.0776·1.0243

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0533

RPS
0.1727·0.1656

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0071

Brier
0.6496·0.6135

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0361

Goal MAE
0.85
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.5100.63150.220150%
Under 2.5100.63150.220150%
BTTS100.67610.241650%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.