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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Espanyol vs Levante UD prediction

Slight lean

Espanyol win 41%

· RCDE Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit

Espanyol

3–0

Espanyol won

Levante UD

1X2

Espanyol win

41%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Espanyol win · 41%

Actual Espanyol won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 3–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

EspanyolvsLevante UD
Slight lean

Espanyol win41%

Espanyol win
41%
Draw
27%
Levante UD win
32%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.33–1.13

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS
50%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Espanyol win 41%, from a -6 Elo gap (1453 vs 1459).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.33-1.13.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Kike García listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1453

-6

1459

La Liga table
Out

Espanyol1 out

  • Kike García

Levante UD1 out

  • Roger BruguéSuspended
XI
Expected XI

11 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Espanyol

DWWLL

Avg xG 1.16-1.48

Levante UD

LWWWL

Avg xG 2.04-1.41

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 21011.5%
  3. 3019.7%
  4. 421Prediction8.6%
  5. 5008.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Espanyol versus Levante UD
Espanyol goals012345
09%10%5%2%
111%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Espanyol win

Espanyol win: model 41%, fair 2.41, listed 2.13 (45%)

Fair

2.41

41% model

Listed

2.13

45% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.70, listed 3.25 (29%)

Fair

3.70

27% model

Listed

3.25

29% book

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Levante UD win: model 32%, fair 3.17, listed 3.74 (26%)

Fair

3.17

32% model

Listed

3.74

26% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Espanyol1 out

  • Kike GarcíaOutHamstring Injury

Levante UD1 out

  • Roger BruguéSuspendedred card suspension

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Espanyol

  1. 13 Marko Dmitrović · G
  2. 6 Leandro Cabrera · D · changed
  3. 20 Carlos Romero · D · changed
  4. 20 Fernando Calero · D · changed
  5. 23 Omar El Hilali · D
  6. 4 Urko González · M
  7. 8 Edu Expósito · M
  8. 10 Pol Lozano · M · changed
  9. 9 Roberto Fernández · F
  10. 19 Kike García · F · changed
  11. 24 Tyrhys Dolan · F

Levante UD

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Matias Moreno · D · changed
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 22 Jeremy Toljan · D · changed
  5. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  6. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  7. 16 Kervin Arriaga · M · changed
  8. 18 Pablo Martínez · M · changed
  9. 9 Iván Romero · F
  10. 19 Carlos Espí · F · changed
  11. 19 Kareem Tunde · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Espanyol

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Marko Dmitrović · G
  2. 5 Clemens Riedel · D · changed
  3. 14 Unai Núñez · D · changed
  4. 23 Omar El Hilali · D
  5. 29 Roger Hinojo · D · changed
  6. 4 Urko González · M
  7. 8 Edu Expósito · M
  8. 22 Álex Calatrava · M · changed
  9. 24 Tyrhys Dolan · M
  10. 28 Javier Hernández · M · changed
  11. 9 Roberto Fernández · F

Levante UD

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D · changed
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez · D · changed
  6. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  7. 10 Carlos Álvarez · M · changed
  8. 17 Víctor García · M · changed
  9. 20 Oriol Rey · M · changed
  10. 27 Paco Cortés · M · changed
  11. 9 Iván Romero · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Espanyol

DWWLL
  • 11Real SociedadHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.41–1.40

  • 21OsasunaAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.79–1.72

  • 20Athletic ClubHome · 13 May 2026

    xG 0.76–0.82

  • 12SevillaAway · 9 May 2026

    xG 0.61–1.38

  • 02Real MadridHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 1.21–2.10

Levante UD

LWWWL
  • 12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.53–1.57

  • 20MallorcaHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.39–0.30

  • 32Celta VigoAway · 12 May 2026

    xG 1.52–2.18

  • 32OsasunaHome · 8 May 2026

    xG 2.99–0.63

  • 15VillarrealAway · 2 May 2026

    xG 0.76–2.36

How to read the Espanyol vs Levante UD probabilities

Espanyol vs Levante UD (La Liga, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Espanyol win 41%. Expected goals are 1.33–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–0.

Espanyol and Levante UD are close on expected goals (1.33–1.13), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Espanyol win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Espanyol vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Espanyol vs Levante UD?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Espanyol win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 27%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Espanyol vs Levante UD?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Espanyol vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Espanyol vs Levante UD?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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