Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 26%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win 51%

Thu 20 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon · Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Published 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Rayo Vallecano

1–1

Draw

Deportivo Alavés

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

51%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–0

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Rayo Vallecano win · 51%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Rayo VallecanovsDeportivo Alavés

Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win51%

Rayo Vallecano win: 51%
Draw: 26%
Deportivo Alavés win: 23%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.54–0.94
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Rayo Vallecano win 51%, from a +50 Elo gap (1514 vs 1464).
2Expected goals 1.54-0.94.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%.
4Luiz Felipe listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1514
+50
1464
La Liga table
Out: Rayo Vallecano1 out
Luiz Felipe
Deportivo AlavésNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
4-1-4-1/5-3-2
Last 5: Rayo Vallecano
WWDDW
Avg xG 1.23-1.17
Deportivo Alavés
LWWDL
Avg xG 1.19-0.93

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal13.0%
211Result12.1%
32010.0%
421Prediction9.3%
5008.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Rayo Vallecano versus Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano goals	0	1	2
0	8%	8%	4%
1	13%	12%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 15 Sept 2026, 20:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

Disagrees

Fair

1.95

51% model

Listed

2.47

39% book

Draw

Fair

3.90

26% model

Listed

3.11

31% book

Deportivo Alavés win

Fair

4.35

23% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Rayo Vallecano win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Rayo Vallecano1 out

Luiz FelipeOutHamstring Injury

Deportivo AlavésNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Rayo Vallecano

Deportivo Alavés

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Rayo Vallecano

4-1-4-1

Deportivo Alavés

5-3-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Rayo Vallecano

WWDDW

21Deportivo AlavésAway · 23 May 2026
xG 1.34–1.63
20VillarrealHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.49–0.97
11ValenciaAway · 14 May 2026
xG 1.16–0.76
11Girona FCHome · 11 May 2026
xG 1.20–0.98
20GetafeAway · 3 May 2026
xG 0.98–1.49

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDL

12Rayo VallecanoHome · 23 May 2026
xG 1.63–1.34
10Real OviedoAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.06–0.33
10FC BarcelonaHome · 13 May 2026
xG 0.72–0.60
11ElcheAway · 9 May 2026
xG 2.05–1.39
24Athletic ClubHome · 2 May 2026
xG 0.49–0.97

How to read the Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 20 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Rayo Vallecano win 51%. Expected goals are 1.54–0.94. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–1.

Rayo Vallecano holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.54–0.94). That shows up as Rayo Vallecano win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off: Thu 20 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 26%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?: BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.