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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Getafe vs Celta Vigo Prediction

· Coliseum Alfonso Pérez · Getafe predictions · Celta Vigo predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Getafe crestvsCelta Vigo crest

Win probabilities

Balanced

Getafe win 36%

Getafe win
36%
Draw
32%
Celta Vigo win
32%
Getafe win %
36%
Draw %
32%
Celta Vigo win %
32%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Getafe win 36%, from a -52 Elo gap (1478 vs 1530).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.04-0.95.
  3. 3Modal score 0-0 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Abdel Abqar listed out and 5 other absences.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Getafe win36%2.772.6136%
Draw32%3.102.8633%
Celta Vigo win32%3.162.9731%

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.532%3.122.9533%
Under 2.568%1.471.4467%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes40%2.482.1843%
BTTS no60%1.681.6257%
Elo

1478 -52 1530

Getafe vs Celta Vigo

La Liga table
Out
  • Abdel Abqar · Getafe
  • Andrés García · Getafe
  • Borja Iglesias · Celta Vigo
XI

Predicted XI

4-4-2 / 3-4-3

Last 5

GetafeW L W L W0.69-0.96 xG

Celta VigoW D W D L0.94-1.60 xG

Modal score

0-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Balanced

Getafe win · 36%

Expected goals

1.04–0.95

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Getafe versus Celta Vigo
Getafe goals012345
014%12%6%
114%14%6%2%
27%7%3%
33%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
32%
BTTS %
40%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-0Modal14.3%
  2. 1-114.2%
  3. 1-013.5%
  4. 0-112.3%
  5. 2-07.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Getafe crestGetafe

Out

  • Abdel Abqar · D · Muscle Injury
  • Andrés García · D · Thigh Injury
  • Christantus Uche · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Juanmi · F · Knee Injury
  • Mario Martín · M · Thigh Injury

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Out

  • Borja Iglesias · F · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Getafe crestGetafe4-4-2

  1. 13David SoriaG
  2. 2DjenéD
  3. 17Kiko FemeníaD
  4. 22Johan MojicaD
  5. 24Zaid RomeroD
  6. 11Ramón TerratsM
  7. 16Francho SerranoM
  8. 23Orel MangalaM
  9. 28Alberto RiscoM
  10. 10Martín SatrianoF
  11. 19Enes ÜnalF

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo3-4-3

  1. 13Ionuț RaduG
  2. 2Carl StarfeltD
  3. 4Abdoulaye FayeD
  4. 15Álvaro NúñezD
  5. 20Javi RodríguezD
  6. 5Sergio CarreiraM
  7. 6Ilaix MoribaM
  8. 14Aleix FebasM
  9. 16Hugo GonzálezM
  10. 19Williot SwedbergM
  11. 9Ferrán JutglàF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Getafe crestGetafeW L W L W

  • H · Real Racing Club · 23 Aug 20261-01.24-1.31 xG
  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 15 Aug 20260-30.24-1.93 xG
  • H · Osasuna · 23 May 20261-00.27-0.51 xG
  • A · Elche · 17 May 20260-10.11-0.66 xG
  • H · Mallorca · 13 May 20263-11.58-0.41 xG

Celta Vigo crestCelta VigoW D W D L

  • H · Osasuna · 27 Aug 20261-00.14-2.60 xG
  • A · Valencia · 22 Aug 20260-00.66-0.58 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 23 May 20261-01.59-0.80 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 17 May 20261-10.15-2.49 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 12 May 20262-32.18-1.52 xG

How to read the Getafe vs Celta Vigo probabilities

Getafe vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 7 Sept 2026): Balanced. Getafe win 36%. Expected goals are 1.04–0.95. Modal score 0-0 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Getafe and Celta Vigo are close on expected goals (1.04–0.95), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 0-0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 32%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 40%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
1 Sept 2026, 17:54 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Getafe win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Getafe vs Celta Vigo

Who is favourite for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Getafe win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 32%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
0-0 is the modal scoreline at 14%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Getafe vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 32% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
BTTS is 40%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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