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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid Prediction

Slight lean

Draw 46%

· Reale Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid
Slight lean

Draw46%

Real Sociedad win
24%
Draw
46%
Atlético Madrid win
30%
Prediction
0–0

Grid peak · 36%

Expected goals
0.47–0.57

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
9%
BTTS
16%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Draw 46%, from a -133 Elo gap (1494 vs 1628).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.47-0.57.
  3. 3Prediction 0–0 (36%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Jon Pacheco listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Real Sociedad crest

1494

-133

Atlético Madrid crest

1628

La Liga table
Out

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad3 out

  • Jon Pacheco
  • Pablo Marín
  • Álvaro Odriozola

Atlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid1 out

  • Alexander Sørloth
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

DWLLD

Avg xG 1.24-1.60

Atlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

LWDWL

Avg xG 0.94-1.71

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 100Prediction35.7%
  2. 20120.0%
  3. 31016.5%
  4. 4119.6%
  5. 5025.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Sociedad versus Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad goals012345
036%20%6%
116%10%3%
24%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Sociedad win

Real Sociedad win: model 24%, fair 4.21, listed 2.96 (32%)

Fair

4.21

24% model

Listed

2.96

32% book

Draw

Disagrees

Draw: model 46%, fair 2.18, listed 3.57 (26%)

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

3.57

26% book

Atlético Madrid win

Atlético Madrid win: model 30%, fair 3.30, listed 2.23 (42%)

Fair

3.30

30% model

Listed

2.23

42% book

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 9%, fair 11.52, listed 1.69 (57%)

Fair
11.52
Listed
1.69

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 91%, fair 1.10, listed 2.21 (43%)

Fair
1.10
Listed
2.21

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 16%, fair 6.12, listed 1.53 (61%)

Fair
6.12
Listed
1.53

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 84%, fair 1.20, listed 2.35 (39%)

Fair
1.20
Listed
2.35

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad3 out

  • Jon PachecoOutUnknown
  • Pablo MarínOutMuscle Injury
  • Álvaro OdriozolaOutACL Knee Injury

Atlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid1 out

  • Alexander SørlothOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Álex Remiro · G
  2. 2 Jon Aramburu · D
  3. 5 Igor Zubeldia · D
  4. 6 Jon Martin · D
  5. 17 Sergio Gómez · D
  6. 7 Ander Barrenetxea · M
  7. 8 Beñat Turrientes · M
  8. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal · M
  9. 14 Takefusa Kubo · M
  10. 21 Yangel Herrera · M
  11. 9 Orri Óskarsson · F

Atlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

4-4-2

  1. 13 Jan Oblak · G
  2. 14 Marcos Llorente · D
  3. 17 Dávid Hancko · D
  4. 18 Marc Pubill · D
  5. 22 Alejandro Grimaldo · D
  6. 8 Pablo Barrios · M
  7. 11 Ademola Lookman · M
  8. 20 Giuliano Simeone · M
  9. 23 Morten Hjulmand · M
  10. 7 Kang-in Lee · F
  11. 10 Alex Baena · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

DWLLD
  • 00Celta VigoHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.05–0.43

  • 21EspanyolHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.82–0.77

  • 14Real MadridAway · 26 Aug 2026

    xG 0.57–3.14

  • 01Real BetisAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–1.24

  • 11EspanyolAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.40–2.41

Atlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

LWDWL
  • 03Athletic ClubAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–1.41

  • 31SevillaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.93–0.90

  • 22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.78–3.60

  • 20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–0.15

  • 15VillarrealAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.16–2.48

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Draw 46%. Expected goals are 0.47–0.57. Prediction 0–0 (36%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid are close on expected goals (0.47–0.57), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 0–0 carries 36%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 9%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 16%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Draw
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Draw at 46%. Home 24%, draw 46%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?
0–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 36%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 9% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?
BTTS is 16%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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