Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Draw at 46%. Home 24%, draw 46%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

0–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 35%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 9% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?

BTTS is 17%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid prediction

Slight lean

Draw 46%

Sun 13 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon · Reale Arena

Published 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Real Sociedad

0–3

Atlético Madrid won

Atlético Madrid

1X2

Draw

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 0–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Draw · 46%

Actual Atlético Madrid won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 0–0

Actual 0–3

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Real SociedadvsAtlético Madrid

Slight lean

Draw46%

Real Sociedad win: 24%
Draw: 46%
Atlético Madrid win: 30%

Prediction: 0–0
Expected goals: 0.47–0.57
Over 2.5: 9%
BTTS: 17%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Draw 46%, from a -125 Elo gap (1502 vs 1628).
2Expected goals 0.47-0.57.
3Prediction 0–0 (35%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Jon Martin suspended and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1502
-125
1628
La Liga table
Out: Real Sociedad3 out
Jon MartinSuspended
Igor Zubeldia
Álvaro Odriozola
Atlético Madrid3 out
Alexander Sørloth
Julián Alvarez
Pablo Barrios
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Real Sociedad
WDWLL
Avg xG 1.08-1.61
Atlético Madrid
LWDWL
Avg xG 0.94-1.71

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

100Prediction35.4%
20119.9%
31016.3%
4119.8%
5025.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Sociedad versus Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad goals	0	1	2	3
0	35%	20%	6%	1%
1	16%	10%	3%
2	4%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:54 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Sociedad win

Fair

4.23

24% model

Listed

3.57

28% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Atlético Madrid win

Fair

3.28

30% model

Listed

2.16

46% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 11.27
Listed: 1.65

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.10
Listed: 2.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 6.00
Listed: 1.50

BTTS no

Fair: 1.20
Listed: 2.48

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Real Sociedad3 out

Jon MartinSuspendedred card suspension
Igor ZubeldiaOutMuscle Injury
Álvaro OdriozolaOutACL Knee Injury

Atlético Madrid3 out

Alexander SørlothOutMuscle Injury
Julián AlvarezOutMuscle Injury
Pablo BarriosOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Real Sociedad

Atlético Madrid

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Real Sociedad

4-2-3-1

Atlético Madrid

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Sociedad

WDWLL

32ElcheAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.58–2.47
00Celta VigoHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.05–0.43
21EspanyolHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.82–0.77
14Real MadridAway · 26 Aug 2026
xG 0.57–3.14
01Real BetisAway · 21 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–1.24

Atlético Madrid

LWDWL

03Athletic ClubAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.41
31SevillaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.93–0.90
22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.78–3.60
20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.15
15VillarrealAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.16–2.48

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Draw 46%. Expected goals are 0.47–0.57. Prediction 0–0 (35%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–3.

Real Sociedad and Atlético Madrid are close on expected goals (0.47–0.57), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 0–0 carries 35%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 9%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 17%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Draw
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Draw at 46%. Home 24%, draw 46%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?: 0–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 35%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 9% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid?: BTTS is 17%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.