Skip to main content
E90

La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Sevilla vs Valencia Prediction

Slight lean

Sevilla win 39%

· Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Sevilla crestSevillavsValencia crestValencia
Slight lean

Sevilla win39%

Sevilla win
39%
Draw
29%
Valencia win
32%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.21–1.06

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
39%
BTTS
46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Sevilla win 39%, from a -21 Elo gap (1470 vs 1491).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.21-1.06.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Guido Rodríguez listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Sevilla crest

1470

-21

Valencia crest

1491

La Liga table
Out

Sevilla crestSevillaNone out

No listed absences

Valencia crestValencia3 out

  • Guido Rodríguez
  • Justin De Haas
  • Umar Sadiq
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5

Sevilla crestSevilla

LWWLL

Avg xG 1.00-1.33

Valencia crestValencia

LLDWW

Avg xG 1.22-1.02

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction13.6%
  2. 21012.2%
  3. 30010.7%
  4. 40110.6%
  5. 5218.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sevilla versus Valencia
Sevilla goals012345
011%11%6%2%
112%14%7%2%
28%8%4%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sevilla win

Sevilla win: model 39%, fair 2.55, listed 2.34 (40%)

Fair

2.55

39% model

Listed

2.34

40% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.42, listed 3.12 (30%)

Fair

3.42

29% model

Listed

3.12

30% book

Valencia win

Valencia win: model 32%, fair 3.17, listed 3.14 (30%)

Fair

3.17

32% model

Listed

3.14

30% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 39%, fair 2.53, listed 2.40 (40%)

Fair
2.53
Listed
2.40

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 61%, fair 1.65, listed 1.59 (60%)

Fair
1.65
Listed
1.59

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 1.98 (47%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
1.98

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.75

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Sevilla crestSevilla0 out · 1 doubtful

  • Rubén VargasDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Valencia crestValencia3 out · 3 doubtful

  • Guido RodríguezOutMuscle Injury
  • Justin De HaasOutAnkle Injury
  • Umar SadiqOutHamstring Injury
  • Dimitri FoulquierDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • Kayne van OevelenDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • Luis RiojaDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Sevilla crestSevilla

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Odysseas Vlachodimos · G
  2. 2 Juan Iglesias · D
  3. 4 Kike Salas · D
  4. 5 Andres Castrin · D
  5. 17 Gabriel Suazo · D
  6. 3 Julio Díaz · M
  7. 6 Lucien Agoumé · M
  8. 10 Peque Fernández · M
  9. 18 Jon Guridi · M
  10. 30 Miguel Sierra · M
  11. 9 Robbie Ure · F

Valencia crestValencia

5-4-1

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 4 Mouctar Diakhaby · D
  3. 5 César Tárrega · D
  4. 11 Luis Rioja · D
  5. 21 Jesús Vázquez · D
  6. 22 Arnau Martínez · D
  7. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  8. 18 Pepelu · M
  9. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  10. 39 Ryunosuke Sato · M
  11. 6 Umar Sadiq · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sevilla crestSevilla

LWWLL
  • 13Atlético MadridHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.90–0.93

  • 31Athletic ClubAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.41–1.25

  • 21Rayo VallecanoHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 2.19–1.89

  • 01Celta VigoAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.80–1.59

  • 01Real MadridHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.72–1.00

Valencia crestValencia

LLDWW
  • 13Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–1.42

  • 01Real BetisHome · 25 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–0.71

  • 00Celta VigoHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.58–0.66

  • 31FC BarcelonaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.35–1.18

  • 43Real SociedadAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.67–1.15

How to read the Sevilla vs Valencia probabilities

Sevilla vs Valencia (La Liga, 11 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Sevilla win 39%. Expected goals are 1.21–1.06. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Sevilla and Valencia are close on expected goals (1.21–1.06), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 39%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Sevilla win
Kick-off
Fri 11 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sevilla vs Valencia

Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Valencia?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sevilla win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Valencia?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Sevilla vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 39% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Valencia?
BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions