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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Levante UD prediction

Slight lean

Osasuna win 44%

· Estadio El Sadar

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Osasuna

0–0

Draw

Levante UD

1X2

Osasuna win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Osasuna win · 44%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

OsasunavsLevante UD
Slight lean

Osasuna win44%

Osasuna win
44%
Draw
27%
Levante UD win
29%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.41–1.10

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
46%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS
50%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Osasuna win 44%, from a +12 Elo gap (1471 vs 1459).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.41-1.10.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1471

+12

1459

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

11 changes from the expected XI

4-4-2/4-1-4-1
Last 5

Osasuna

LLLLL

Avg xG 1.19-1.38

Levante UD

LWWWL

Avg xG 2.04-1.41

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.6%
  2. 21011.6%
  3. 3019.0%
  4. 421Prediction8.9%
  5. 500Result8.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Levante UD
Osasuna goals012345
08%9%5%
112%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Osasuna win: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 1.90 (50%)

Fair

2.27

44% model

Listed

1.90

50% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.77, listed 3.40 (28%)

Fair

3.77

27% model

Listed

3.40

28% book

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Levante UD win: model 29%, fair 3.41, listed 4.38 (22%)

Fair

3.41

29% model

Listed

4.38

22% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Osasuna

  1. 1 Sergio Herrera · G
  2. 19 Valentin Rosier · D · changed
  3. 22 Enzo Boyomo · D · changed
  4. 24 Alejandro Catena · D
  5. 6 Lucas Torró · M · changed
  6. 7 Jon Moncayola · M
  7. 10 Aimar Oroz · M
  8. 14 Rubén García · M
  9. 22 Javi Galán · M · changed
  10. 17 Ante Budimir · F
  11. 21 Víctor Muñoz · F · changed

Levante UD

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Matias Moreno · D · changed
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 22 Jeremy Toljan · D · changed
  5. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  6. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  7. 16 Kervin Arriaga · M · changed
  8. 18 Pablo Martínez · M · changed
  9. 9 Iván Romero · F
  10. 19 Carlos Espí · F · changed
  11. 19 Kareem Tunde · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Osasuna

4-4-2

  1. 1 Sergio Herrera · G
  2. 5 Jorge Herrando · D · changed
  3. 23 Abel Bretones · D · changed
  4. 24 Alejandro Catena · D
  5. 27 Iñigo Arguibide · D · changed
  6. 7 Jon Moncayola · M
  7. 8 Iker Muñoz · M · changed
  8. 14 Rubén García · M
  9. 16 Moi Gómez · M · changed
  10. 10 Aimar Oroz · F
  11. 17 Ante Budimir · F

Levante UD

4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D · changed
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez · D · changed
  6. 7 Roger Brugué · M · changed
  7. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  8. 18 Enzo Bardeli · M · changed
  9. 20 Oriol Rey · M · changed
  10. 24 Thiago Fernández · M · changed
  11. 9 Iván Romero · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna

LLLLL
  • 01GetafeAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.51–0.27

  • 12EspanyolHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.72–0.79

  • 12Atlético MadridHome · 12 May 2026

    xG 2.30–1.56

  • 23Levante UDAway · 8 May 2026

    xG 0.63–2.99

  • 12FC BarcelonaHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 0.80–1.29

Levante UD

LWWWL
  • 12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.53–1.57

  • 20MallorcaHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.39–0.30

  • 32Celta VigoAway · 12 May 2026

    xG 1.52–2.18

  • 32OsasunaHome · 8 May 2026

    xG 2.99–0.63

  • 15VillarrealAway · 2 May 2026

    xG 0.76–2.36

How to read the Osasuna vs Levante UD probabilities

Osasuna vs Levante UD (La Liga, 24 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Osasuna win 44%. Expected goals are 1.41–1.10. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.41–1.10). That shows up as Osasuna win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off
Mon 24 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Levante UD?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 27%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Levante UD?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Osasuna vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Levante UD?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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