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La Liga · Round 7 · 2026/27

Villarreal vs Levante UD prediction

Clear lean

Villarreal win 58%

· Estadio de la Ceramica

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

VillarrealvsLevante UD
Clear lean

Villarreal win58%

Villarreal win
58%
Draw
23%
Levante UD win
19%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.92–1.02

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Villarreal win 58%, from a +132 Elo gap (1593 vs 1460).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.92-1.02.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Juan Foyth listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1593

+132

1460

La Liga table
Out

Villarreal1 out

  • Juan Foyth

Levante UD1 out

  • Etta Eyong
XI
Last league XI
4-4-2/4-4-2
Last 5

Villarreal

LLDDW

Avg xG 1.98-1.10

Levante UD

LDWDL

Avg xG 1.52-1.65

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.6%
  2. 221Prediction9.9%
  3. 3109.9%
  4. 4209.8%
  5. 5316.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Villarreal versus Levante UD
Villarreal goals012345
06%5%3%
110%11%5%
210%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Villarreal win

Villarreal win: model 58%, fair 1.72, listed 1.56 (60%)

Fair

1.72

58% model

Listed

1.56

60% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.44, listed 4.18 (22%)

Fair

4.44

23% model

Listed

4.18

22% book

Levante UD win

Levante UD win: model 19%, fair 5.19, listed 5.27 (18%)

Fair

5.19

19% model

Listed

5.27

18% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.60 (60%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.60

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.29, listed 2.38 (40%)

Fair
2.29
Listed
2.38

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.83, listed 1.62 (57%)

Fair
1.83
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.21, listed 2.18 (43%)

Fair
2.21
Listed
2.18

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Villarreal1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Juan FoythOutMuscle Injury
  • Carlos RomeroDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Levante UD1 out

  • Etta EyongOutThigh Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Villarreal

4-4-2

  1. 1 Luiz Júnior · G
  2. 2 Logan Costa · D
  3. 3 Alexander Freeman · D
  4. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  5. 23 Sergi Cardona · D
  6. 10 Alberto Moleiro · M
  7. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  8. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  9. 24 Nathan-Dylan Saliba · M
  10. 7 Gerard Moreno · F
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez · F

Levante UD

4-4-2

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 22 Jeremy Toljan · D
  5. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  6. 5 Hugo Sotelo · M
  7. 7 Roger Brugué · M
  8. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  9. 17 Víctor García · M
  10. 6 Daniel Requena · F
  11. 10 Petar Ratkov · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Villarreal

LLDDW
  • 23Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–0.83

  • 01Deportivo AlavésAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–0.73

  • 22Atlético MadridAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.60–0.78

  • 22Real Racing ClubAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.87–2.01

  • 51Atlético MadridHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 2.48–1.16

Levante UD

LDWDL
  • 24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.46–2.63

  • 00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.81–1.46

  • 52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.76–1.92

  • 00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.31–0.67

  • 03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.28–1.55

How to read the Villarreal vs Levante UD probabilities

Villarreal vs Levante UD (La Liga, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Villarreal win 58%. Expected goals are 1.92–1.02. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Villarreal is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.92–1.02). Villarreal win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Villarreal vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Levante UD?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 23%, away 19%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Levante UD?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Villarreal vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Levante UD?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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