Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Levante UD?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 61%. Home 61%, draw 21%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Levante UD?

2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Villarreal vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Levante UD?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 7 · 2627.0

Villarreal vs Levante UD prediction

Clear lean

Villarreal win 61%

Sun 20 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · Estadio de la Ceramica

Published 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 3/4 checks hit

Villarreal

3–1

Villarreal won

Levante UD

1X2

Villarreal win

61%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Villarreal win · 61%

Actual Villarreal won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VillarrealvsLevante UD

Clear lean

Villarreal win61%

Open game

Villarreal win: 61%
Draw: 21%
Levante UD win: 18%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.10–1.04
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Villarreal win 61%, from a +128 Elo gap (1588 vs 1460).
2Expected goals 2.10-1.04.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 61%.
5Santi Comesaña listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1588
+128
1460
La Liga table
Out: Villarreal1 out
Santi Comesaña
Levante UD2 out
Etta Eyong
Hugo Sotelo
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Villarreal
WLLLD
Avg xG 2.35-1.30
Levante UD
LDWDL
Avg xG 1.52-1.65

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

121Prediction9.9%
2119.6%
3209.5%
4108.9%
531Result6.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Villarreal versus Levante UD
Villarreal goals	0	1	2
0	4%	4%	2%
1	9%	10%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	7%	7%	4%
4	3%	4%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 05:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Villarreal win

Fair

1.63

61% model

Listed

1.58

62% book

Draw

Fair

4.85

21% model

Listed

4.60

21% book

Levante UD win

Fair

5.59

18% model

Listed

5.90

17% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.64
Listed: 1.45

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.55
Listed: 2.80

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.76
Listed: 1.54

BTTS no

Fair: 2.32
Listed: 2.35

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Villarreal1 out

Santi ComesañaOutAnkle Injury

Levante UD2 out

Etta EyongOutThigh Injury
Hugo SoteloOutSprained Knee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Villarreal

Levante UD

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Villarreal

4-2-3-1

Levante UD

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Villarreal

WLLLD

31Málaga CFAway · 17 Sept 2026
xG 3.33–0.63
12Real BetisHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.89–3.52
23Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–0.83
01Deportivo AlavésAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–0.73
22Atlético MadridAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.60–0.78

Levante UD

LDWDL

24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.46–2.63
00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–1.46
52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.76–1.92
00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–0.67
03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.28–1.55

How to read the Villarreal vs Levante UD probabilities

Villarreal vs Levante UD (La Liga, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Villarreal win 61%. Expected goals are 2.10–1.04. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 3–1.

Villarreal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.10–1.04). Villarreal win is 61%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Clear lean · Villarreal win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Villarreal vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Villarreal vs Levante UD?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 61%. Home 61%, draw 21%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal vs Levante UD?: 2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Villarreal vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Villarreal vs Levante UD?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.