Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD prediction

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win 46%

Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 9 · 2/4 checks hit

Deportivo de A Coruña

1–1

Draw

Levante UD

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Deportivo de A Coruña win · 46%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo de A CoruñavsLevante UD

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win46%

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 46%
Draw: 26%
Levante UD win: 29%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.14
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over74%; Under26%
2.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over49%; Under51%
3.5 goals2 scored · Hit: Over27%; Under73%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Deportivo de A Coruña win 46%, from a -45 Elo gap (1411 vs 1456).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.14.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1411
-45
1456
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
DLDWW
Avg xG 1.11-1.02
Levante UD
LLDWD
Avg xG 1.56-2.14

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111ModalResult12.2%
21010.7%
321Prediction9.2%
4018.1%
5208.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Levante UD
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	5%
1	11%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:37 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

2.18

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.90

26% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

Levante UD win

Fair

3.49

29% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 34 hours before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.98

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.93

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.89
Listed: 1.72

BTTS no

Fair: 2.12
Listed: 2.04

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Deportivo de A Coruña

Levante UD

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

DLDWW

11Real BetisHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.29–1.05
01SevillaHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.14–0.73
11GetafeAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.88–0.70
32VillarrealAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.83–1.20
31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.42–1.40

Levante UD

LLDWD

13VillarrealAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.46–4.02
24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.46–2.63
00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–1.46
52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.76–1.92
00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–0.67

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD (La Liga, 16 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Deportivo de A Coruña win 46%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.14. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Deportivo de A Coruña holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–1.14). That shows up as Deportivo de A Coruña win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Deportivo de A Coruña win
Kick-off: Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.