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La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Villarreal prediction

Slight lean

Villarreal win 51%

· La Rosaleda

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Málaga CFvsVillarreal
Slight lean

Villarreal win51%

Málaga CF win
23%
Draw
26%
Villarreal win
51%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 0–1 at 12%

Expected goals
0.96–1.55

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
46%
BTTS
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Villarreal win 51%, from a -229 Elo gap (1364 vs 1593).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.96-1.55.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Aarón Ochoa listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1364

-229

1593

La Liga table
Out

Málaga CF5 out

  • Aarón Ochoa
  • Adrián Niño
  • Diego Murillo
  • +2 more

Villarreal1 out

  • Juan Foyth
XI
Last league XI
4-3-3/4-4-2
Last 5

Málaga CF

DLDLL

Avg xG 0.85-1.07

Villarreal

LLDDW

Avg xG 1.98-1.10

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 101Modal12.3%
  2. 21112.3%
  3. 3029.7%
  4. 412Prediction9.4%
  5. 5008.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Villarreal
Málaga CF goals012345
08%12%10%5%
18%12%9%5%
24%6%5%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Málaga CF win

Disagrees

Málaga CF win: model 23%, fair 4.30, listed 3.35 (28%)

Fair

4.30

23% model

Listed

3.35

28% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.86, listed 3.65 (26%)

Fair

3.86

26% model

Listed

3.65

26% book

Villarreal win

Villarreal win: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 2.03 (46%)

Fair

1.97

51% model

Listed

2.03

46% book

The model disagrees with the listed Málaga CF win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 1.67 (57%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
1.67

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 2.22 (43%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
2.22

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.53 (60%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.53

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 2.35 (40%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
2.35

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Málaga CF5 out · 1 doubtful

  • Aarón OchoaOutMeniscus Injury
  • Adrián NiñoOutThigh Injury
  • Diego MurilloOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Fernando CaleroOutBroken Rib
  • Julen LobeteOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Eneko JauregiDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Villarreal1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Juan FoythOutMuscle Injury
  • Carlos RomeroDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Málaga CF

4-3-3

  1. 1 Alfonso Herrero · G
  2. 4 Einar Galilea · D
  3. 12 Jose Salinas · D
  4. 15 Ángel Recio · D
  5. 31 Rafa Garrido · D
  6. 8 Carlos Dotor · M
  7. 18 Pablo Martínez · M
  8. 22 Dani Lorenzo · M
  9. 9 Chupete · F
  10. 10 David Larrubia · F
  11. 19 Juan Cruz · F

Villarreal

4-4-2

  1. 1 Luiz Júnior · G
  2. 2 Logan Costa · D
  3. 3 Alexander Freeman · D
  4. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  5. 23 Sergi Cardona · D
  6. 10 Alberto Moleiro · M
  7. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  8. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  9. 24 Nathan-Dylan Saliba · M
  10. 7 Gerard Moreno · F
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Málaga CF

DLDLL
  • 00Levante UDHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.46–0.81

  • 04Real MadridAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.71–2.62

  • 11Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.95–1.12

  • 02Atlético MadridAway · 19 Aug 2026

    xG 0.15–0.82

  • 01GetafeHome · 19 May 2018

    xG 0.00–0.00

Villarreal

LLDDW
  • 23Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–0.83

  • 01Deportivo AlavésAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–0.73

  • 22Atlético MadridAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.60–0.78

  • 22Real Racing ClubAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.87–2.01

  • 51Atlético MadridHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 2.48–1.16

How to read the Málaga CF vs Villarreal probabilities

Málaga CF vs Villarreal (La Liga, 17 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Villarreal win 51%. Expected goals are 0.96–1.55. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Villarreal holds a modest expected-goals edge (0.96–1.55). That shows up as Villarreal win at 51%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Thu 17 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Villarreal?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 51%. Home 23%, draw 26%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Villarreal?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Málaga CF vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Villarreal?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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