Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 40%. Home 36%, draw 24%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

BTTS is 66%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia prediction

Balanced

Valencia win 40%

Sun 30 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon · Estadio Riazor

Published 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Deportivo de A Coruña

3–1

Deportivo de A Coruña won

Valencia

1X2

Valencia win

40%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Valencia win · 40%

Actual Deportivo de A Coruña won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Deportivo de A CoruñavsValencia

Balanced

Valencia win40%

Open gameBoth likely

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 36%
Draw: 24%
Valencia win: 40%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.59–1.70
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 66%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Valencia win 40%, from a -109 Elo gap (1391 vs 1500).
2Expected goals 1.59-1.70.
3Prediction 1–1 (11%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 64%.
5Adama Traoré listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1391
-109
1500
La Liga table
Out: Deportivo de A Coruña2 out
Adama Traoré
Noé Carrillo
Valencia3 out
Guido Rodríguez
Justin De Haas
Pablo Maffeo
XI: Expected XI
15 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/5-4-1
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
DDLLD
Avg xG 0.29-0.64
Valencia
LDWWD
Avg xG 1.10-0.97

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction10.5%
2128.6%
3218.0%
4226.8%
5015.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Valencia
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	4%	6%	5%	3%
1	5%	11%	9%	5%	2%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%
3	3%	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

2.74

35% book

Draw

Disagrees

Fair

4.16

24% model

Listed

2.98

32% book

Valencia win

Fair

2.49

40% model

Listed

2.89

33% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.56
Listed: 2.50

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.78
Listed: 1.58

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.52
Listed: 1.98

BTTS no

Fair: 2.91
Listed: 1.77

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo de A Coruña2 out

Adama TraoréOutPhysical Discomfort
Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury

Valencia3 out

Guido RodríguezOutMuscle Injury
Justin De HaasOutAnkle Injury
Pablo MaffeoOutHamstring Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Deportivo de A Coruña

Valencia

Confirmed XIConfirmed15 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-4-2

Valencia

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

DDLLD

11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.95
11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.34–1.23
12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
24VillarrealHome · 12 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00
11Celta VigoAway · 5 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

Valencia

LDWWD

01Real BetisHome · 25 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–0.71
00Celta VigoHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.58–0.66
31FC BarcelonaHome · 23 May 2026
xG 1.35–1.18
43Real SociedadAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.67–1.15
11Rayo VallecanoHome · 14 May 2026
xG 0.76–1.16

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia (La Liga, 30 Aug 2026): Balanced. Valencia win 40%. Expected goals are 1.59–1.70. Prediction 1–1 (11%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 3–1.

Deportivo de A Coruña and Valencia are close on expected goals (1.59–1.70), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 11%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 66%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Valencia win
Kick-off: Sun 30 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 40%. Home 36%, draw 24%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?: BTTS is 66%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.