Final 1–2·Villarreal win 47%
Miss- Villarreal
- 47%
- Draw
- 25%
- Betis
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.69
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 59%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 5 results
La Liga round 5 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Villarreal vs Real Betis; Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid; Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña; Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF; Athletic Club vs Elche; Osasuna vs Espanyol. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 5. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
La Liga reliability
Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0180
- Log loss
- 0.9703
- RPS
- 0.1935
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 38% | 242 | +0% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 46% | 385 | +1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 258 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 71% | 138 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 75% | 69 | +1% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 93% | 43 | +9% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 5 | +8% |
La Liga round 5 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 10
- Favourite-correct
- 40%
- Prediction hits
- 1
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal vs Real Betis | 5 | 1–2 | 2–1Miss | Villarreal win · 47%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid | 5 | 0–3 | 0–0Miss | Draw · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña | 5 | 1–1 | 1–0Miss | Getafe win · 44%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Levante UD vs FC Barcelona | 5 | 2–4 | 1–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 69%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF | 5 | 1–1 | 1–0Miss | Celta Vigo win · 55%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 4–1 | 3–1Miss | Real Madrid win · 77%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Athletic Club vs Elche | 5 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Athletic Club win · 57%Miss | OverMiss | YesHit |
| Osasuna vs Espanyol | 5 | 0–2 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 48%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Real Racing Club vs Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2–1 | 1–1Miss | Real Racing Club win · 37%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Sevilla vs Valencia | 5 | 1–0 | 1–0Hit | Sevilla win · 43%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
Previous: round 4All La Liga resultsNext: round 6
Match page
Final 0–3·Draw 46%
Miss- Sociedad
- 24%
- Draw
- 46%
- Madrid
- 30%
- xG home
- 0.47
- xG away
- 0.57
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- BTTS
- 17%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Getafe win 44%
Miss- Getafe
- 44%
- Draw
- 29%
- Coruña
- 27%
- xG home
- 1.27
- xG away
- 0.92
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- BTTS
- 44%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 2–4·FC Barcelona win 69%
Hit- UD
- 13%
- Draw
- 18%
- Barcelona
- 69%
- xG home
- 0.98
- xG away
- 2.42
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- BTTS
- 57%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Celta Vigo win 55%
Miss- Vigo
- 55%
- Draw
- 26%
- CF
- 19%
- xG home
- 1.57
- xG away
- 0.80
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- BTTS
- 44%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 4–1·Real Madrid win 77%
Hit- Madrid
- 77%
- Draw
- 14%
- Vallecano
- 9%
- xG home
- 2.81
- xG away
- 0.88
- Over 2.5
- 71%
- BTTS
- 55%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Athletic Club win 57%
Miss- Club
- 57%
- Draw
- 23%
- Elche
- 20%
- xG home
- 1.83
- xG away
- 0.97
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- BTTS
- 52%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 0–2·Osasuna win 48%
Miss- Osasuna
- 48%
- Draw
- 26%
- Espanyol
- 25%
- xG home
- 1.55
- xG away
- 1.05
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 52%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 2–1·Real Racing Club win 37%
Hit- Club
- 37%
- Draw
- 26%
- Alavés
- 36%
- xG home
- 1.39
- xG away
- 1.37
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 56%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–0·Sevilla win 43%
Hit- Sevilla
- 43%
- Draw
- 29%
- Valencia
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.29
- xG away
- 0.98
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- BTTS
- 46%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 5 questions
- How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 5?
- 10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
- Where are the La Liga round 5 match pages?
- Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
- Can I see other La Liga rounds?
- Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9, round 10.
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga
Round 5 · 2026/27
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 10 · 10
- Log loss
- 1.0328·0.9061
- RPS
- 0.2072·0.1728
- Brier
- 0.6327·0.5526
- Goal MAE
- 0.75
- 1X2 accuracy
- 40%
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.1267
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0344
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0801
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.7339·0.5017Δ +0.2322 | 0.2438·0.1589 | 80% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.7339·0.5017Δ +0.2322 | 0.2438·0.1589 | 80% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 10 · 10 | 0.6075·0.6826Δ -0.0751 | 0.2106·0.2449 | 70% | Model · Closing line |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.