Skip to main content
E90

La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Levante UD vs FC Barcelona Prediction

Clear lean

FC Barcelona win 67%

· Ciudad de Valencia

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Levante UD crestLevante UDvsFC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona
Clear lean

FC Barcelona win67%

Open game
Levante UD win
15%
Draw
18%
FC Barcelona win
67%
Prediction
1–2

Grid peak · 10%

Expected goals
1.05–2.40

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
67%
BTTS
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: FC Barcelona win 67%, from a -310 Elo gap (1464 vs 1775).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.05-2.40.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 67%.
  5. 5Etta Eyong listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Levante UD crest

1464

-310

FC Barcelona crest

1775

La Liga table
Out

Levante UD crestLevante UD1 out

  • Etta Eyong

FC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona3 out

  • Frenkie de Jong
  • Jesse Bisiwu
  • Roony Bardghji
XI
Last league XI
4-1-4-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Levante UD crestLevante UD

WDLLW

Avg xG 1.85-1.20

FC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona

WWWWL

Avg xG 3.21-0.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 112Prediction9.6%
  2. 2029.1%
  3. 3118.0%
  4. 4137.7%
  5. 5017.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus FC Barcelona
Levante UD goals012345
03%8%9%7%4%2%
13%8%10%8%5%2%
24%5%4%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Levante UD win: model 15%, fair 6.64, listed 7.70 (12%)

Fair

6.64

15% model

Listed

7.70

12% book

Draw

Draw: model 18%, fair 5.57, listed 6.30 (15%)

Fair

5.57

18% model

Listed

6.30

15% book

FC Barcelona win

FC Barcelona win: model 67%, fair 1.49, listed 1.26 (73%)

Fair

1.49

67% model

Listed

1.26

73% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 67%, fair 1.49, listed 1.35 (72%)

Fair
1.49
Listed
1.35

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 33%, fair 3.03, listed 3.40 (28%)

Fair
3.03
Listed
3.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 59%, fair 1.69, listed 1.67 (56%)

Fair
1.69
Listed
1.67

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 41%, fair 2.45, listed 2.12 (44%)

Fair
2.45
Listed
2.12

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Levante UD crestLevante UD1 out

  • Etta EyongOutMuscle Injury

FC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona3 out · 1 doubtful

  • Frenkie de JongOutMeniscus Injury
  • Jesse BisiwuOutThigh Injury
  • Roony BardghjiOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Eric GarcíaDoubtfulHead Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Levante UD crestLevante UD

4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez · D
  6. 7 Roger Brugué · M
  7. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  8. 18 Enzo Bardeli · M
  9. 20 Oriol Rey · M
  10. 24 Thiago Fernández · M
  11. 9 Iván Romero · F

FC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona

4-3-3

  1. 1 Joan García · G
  2. 5 Pau Cubarsí · D
  3. 12 Xavi Espart · D
  4. 18 Gerard Martín · D
  5. 24 Eric García · D
  6. 7 Fermín López · M
  7. 8 Pedri · M
  8. 16 Rodri · M
  9. 10 Lamine Yamal · F
  10. 11 Raphinha · F
  11. 17 Anthony Gordon · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD crestLevante UD

WDLLW
  • 52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.76–1.92

  • 00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.31–0.67

  • 03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.28–1.55

  • 12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.53–1.57

  • 20MallorcaHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 2.39–0.30

FC Barcelona crestFC Barcelona

WWWWL
  • 50ValenciaAway · 6 Sept 2026
  • 52Rayo VallecanoHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 3.04–1.21

  • 20Athletic ClubHome · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 4.23–0.25

  • 50ElcheAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 4.38–0.70

  • 13ValenciaAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.18–1.35

How to read the Levante UD vs FC Barcelona probabilities

Levante UD vs FC Barcelona (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. FC Barcelona win 67%. Expected goals are 1.05–2.40. Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

FC Barcelona is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.05–2.40). FC Barcelona win is 67%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–2 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 67%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · FC Barcelona win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs FC Barcelona

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Barcelona win at 67%. Home 15%, draw 18%, away 67%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?
1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Levante UD vs FC Barcelona go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 67% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?
BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions