Who is favourite for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Barcelona win at 69%. Home 13%, draw 18%, away 69%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Levante UD vs FC Barcelona go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 66% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Levante UD vs FC Barcelona prediction

Clear lean

FC Barcelona win 69%

Sun 13 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon · Ciudad de Valencia

Published 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 5 · 3/4 checks hit

Levante UD

2–4

FC Barcelona won

FC Barcelona

1X2

FC Barcelona win

69%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–2

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted FC Barcelona win · 69%

Actual FC Barcelona won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–4

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 6 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Levante UDvsFC Barcelona

Clear lean

FC Barcelona win69%

Open game

Levante UD win: 13%
Draw: 18%
FC Barcelona win: 69%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.98–2.42
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: FC Barcelona win 69%, from a -311 Elo gap (1463 vs 1775).
2Expected goals 0.98-2.42.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%.
4Over 2.5 at 66%.
5Etta Eyong listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1463
-311
1775
La Liga table
Out: Levante UD1 out
Etta Eyong
FC Barcelona2 out
Frenkie de Jong
Roony Bardghji
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-3-3
Last 5: Levante UD
DWDLL
Avg xG 1.54-1.43
FC Barcelona
WWWWL
Avg xG 3.38-0.83

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Modal9.7%
212Prediction9.6%
3118.1%
4037.8%
5017.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus FC Barcelona
Levante UD goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	8%	10%	8%	5%	2%
1	3%	8%	10%	8%	5%	2%
2		4%	5%	4%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 19:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Fair

7.50

13% model

Listed

17.00

6% book

Draw

Fair

5.62

18% model

Listed

9.50

11% book

FC Barcelona win

Disagrees

Fair

1.45

69% model

Listed

1.20

84% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed FC Barcelona win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.51
Listed: 1.30

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.96
Listed: 4.33

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.34
Listed: 2.20

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Levante UD1 out

Etta EyongOutThigh Injury

FC Barcelona2 out · 1 doubtful

Frenkie de JongOutMeniscus Injury
Roony BardghjiOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Jesse BisiwuDoubtfulThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Levante UD

FC Barcelona

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Levante UD

4-4-2

FC Barcelona

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD

DWDLL

00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–1.46
52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.76–1.92
00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–0.67
03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.28–1.55
12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026
xG 2.53–1.57

FC Barcelona

WWWWL

50ValenciaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.08–0.66
52Rayo VallecanoHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–1.21
20Athletic ClubHome · 27 Aug 2026
xG 4.23–0.25
50ElcheAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 4.38–0.70
13ValenciaAway · 23 May 2026
xG 1.18–1.35

How to read the Levante UD vs FC Barcelona probabilities

Levante UD vs FC Barcelona (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. FC Barcelona win 69%. Expected goals are 0.98–2.42. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–4.

FC Barcelona is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.98–2.42). FC Barcelona win is 69%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 66%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 579
Verdict: Clear lean · FC Barcelona win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs FC Barcelona

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Barcelona win at 69%. Home 13%, draw 18%, away 69%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Levante UD vs FC Barcelona go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 66% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs FC Barcelona?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.