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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Elche vs Real Sociedad Prediction

· Estadio Martínez Valero · Elche predictions · Real Sociedad predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Elche crestvsReal Sociedad crest

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Elche win 41%

Elche win
41%
Draw
29%
Real Sociedad win
30%
Elche win %
41%
Draw %
29%
Real Sociedad win %
30%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Elche win 41%, from a -64 Elo gap (1425 vs 1490).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.30-1.09.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Adam Boayar listed out and 3 other absences.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Elche win41%2.452.8832%
Draw29%3.473.3528%
Real Sociedad win30%3.292.3540%

The model disagrees with the listed Real Sociedad win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.543%2.341.9550%
Under 2.557%1.741.9350%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes49%2.051.7055%
BTTS no51%1.962.0845%
Elo

1425 -64 1490

Elche vs Real Sociedad

La Liga table
Out
  • Adam Boayar · Elche
  • Yago Santiago · Elche
  • Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad
  • Álvaro Odriozola · Real Sociedad
XI

Predicted XI

5-4-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

ElcheL L D D W0.76-1.43 xG

Real SociedadL L D L D0.96-2.11 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Elche win · 41%

Expected goals

1.30–1.09

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Elche versus Real Sociedad
Elche goals012345
010%9%5%
111%14%7%3%
28%8%5%
33%4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%
BTTS %
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.6%
  2. 1-011.3%
  3. 0-09.8%
  4. 0-19.3%
  5. 2-18.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Elche crestElche

Out

  • Adam Boayar · F · Muscle Injury
  • Yago Santiago · M · Knee Injury

Doubtful

  • Fernando Niño · F · Physical Discomfort

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Out

  • Pablo Marín · M · Muscle Injury
  • Álvaro Odriozola · D · ACL Knee Injury

Doubtful

  • Álex Remiro · G · Shoulder Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Elche crestElche5-4-1

  1. 1Matías DituroG
  2. 2Buba SangaréD
  3. 6Pedro BigasD
  4. 22David AffengruberD
  5. 23Víctor ChustD
  6. 8Marc AguadoM
  7. 10Facundo BuonanotteM
  8. 11Germán ValeraM
  9. 12Gonzalo VillarM
  10. 29Ali HouaryM
  11. 14Fernando NiñoF

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad4-4-2

  1. 1Álex RemiroG
  2. 2Jon AramburuD
  3. 5Igor ZubeldiaD
  4. 17Sergio GómezD
  5. 31Jon MartinD
  6. 7Ander BarrenetxeaM
  7. 8Beñat TurrientesM
  8. 18Carlos SolerM
  9. 24Luka SučićM
  10. 9Orri ÓskarssonF
  11. 10Mikel OyarzabalF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Elche crestElcheL L D D W

  • A · Real Racing Club · 28 Aug 20262-31.03-1.72 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 23 Aug 20260-50.70-4.38 xG
  • A · Deportivo de A Coruña · 17 Aug 20261-11.23-0.34 xG
  • A · Girona FC · 23 May 20261-10.18-0.58 xG
  • H · Getafe · 17 May 20261-00.66-0.11 xG

Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadL L D L D

  • A · Real Madrid · 26 Aug 20261-40.57-3.14 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 21 Aug 20260-11.36-1.24 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 23 May 20261-11.40-2.41 xG
  • H · Valencia · 17 May 20263-41.15-1.67 xG
  • A · Girona FC · 14 May 20261-10.33-2.11 xG

How to read the Elche vs Real Sociedad probabilities

Elche vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 7 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Elche win 41%. Expected goals are 1.30–1.09. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Elche and Real Sociedad are close on expected goals (1.30–1.09), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
1 Sept 2026, 17:54 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Elche win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Elche vs Real Sociedad

Who is favourite for Elche vs Real Sociedad?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Elche win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 29%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Elche vs Real Sociedad?
1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Elche vs Real Sociedad go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Elche vs Real Sociedad?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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