Final 2–3·Draw 48%
Miss- Valencia
- 26%
- Draw
- 48%
- Sociedad
- 26%
- xG home
- 0.48
- xG away
- 0.47
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- BTTS
- 15%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 7 results
La Liga round 7 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Valencia vs Real Sociedad; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Real Betis; Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid; Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés; Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano; Espanyol vs Elche. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 7. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
La Liga reliability
Round 7 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0180
- Log loss
- 0.9703
- RPS
- 0.1935
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 38% | 242 | +0% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 46% | 385 | +1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 258 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 71% | 138 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 75% | 69 | +1% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 93% | 43 | +9% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 5 | +8% |
La Liga round 7 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 10
- Favourite-correct
- 40%
- Prediction hits
- 1
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia vs Real Sociedad | 7 | 2–3 | 0–0Miss | Draw · 48%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Villarreal vs Levante UD | 7 | 3–1 | 2–1Miss | Villarreal win · 61%Hit | OverHit | YesHit |
| Deportivo de A Coruña vs Real Betis | 7 | 1–1 | 1–2Miss | Real Betis win · 50%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid | 7 | 2–1 | 1–2Miss | Real Madrid win · 45%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Getafe vs Málaga CF | 7 | 1–0 | 1–0Hit | Getafe win · 50%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Sevilla vs FC Barcelona | 7 | 1–3 | 0–2Miss | FC Barcelona win · 70%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club | 7 | 5–0 | 2–1Miss | Celta Vigo win · 54%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Athletic Club win · 46%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Osasuna win · 39%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Espanyol vs Elche | 7 | 1–3 | 2–1Miss | Espanyol win · 53%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
Previous: round 6All La Liga resultsNext: round 9
Match page
Final 3–1·Villarreal win 61%
Hit- Villarreal
- 61%
- Draw
- 21%
- UD
- 18%
- xG home
- 2.10
- xG away
- 1.04
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- BTTS
- 57%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Real Betis win 50%
Miss- Coruña
- 24%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 50%
- xG home
- 1.02
- xG away
- 1.57
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 2–1·Real Madrid win 45%
Miss- Madrid
- 31%
- Draw
- 24%
- Madrid
- 45%
- xG home
- 1.32
- xG away
- 1.64
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 59%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–0·Getafe win 50%
Hit- Getafe
- 50%
- Draw
- 29%
- CF
- 22%
- xG home
- 1.35
- xG away
- 0.79
- Over 2.5
- 36%
- BTTS
- 41%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–3·FC Barcelona win 70%
Hit- Sevilla
- 11%
- Draw
- 19%
- Barcelona
- 70%
- xG home
- 0.76
- xG away
- 2.20
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 5–0·Celta Vigo win 54%
Hit- Vigo
- 54%
- Draw
- 24%
- Club
- 22%
- xG home
- 1.71
- xG away
- 1.01
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- BTTS
- 52%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 0–0·Athletic Club win 46%
Miss- Club
- 46%
- Draw
- 26%
- Alavés
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.47
- xG away
- 1.09
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–1·Osasuna win 39%
Miss- Osasuna
- 39%
- Draw
- 26%
- Vallecano
- 35%
- xG home
- 1.37
- xG away
- 1.27
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Final 1–3·Espanyol win 53%
Miss- Espanyol
- 53%
- Draw
- 24%
- Elche
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.63
- xG away
- 0.98
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga round 7 questions
- How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 7?
- 10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
- Where are the La Liga round 7 match pages?
- Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
- Can I see other La Liga rounds?
- Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9, round 10.
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
La Liga
Round 7 · 2026/27
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 10 · 10
- Log loss
- 1.0237·0.9964
- RPS
- 0.1947·0.1961
- Brier
- 0.6113·0.5982
- Goal MAE
- 0.96
- 1X2 accuracy
- 40%
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0273
Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0014
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0131
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.8064·0.5558Δ +0.2506 | 0.2715·0.1838 | 80% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 10 · 10 | 0.8064·0.5558Δ +0.2506 | 0.2715·0.1838 | 80% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 10 · 10 | 0.7723·0.5789Δ +0.1935 | 0.2762·0.1936 | 60% | Model · Closing line |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.