Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction

Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win 52%

· Estadio de Vallecas

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Rayo VallecanovsEspanyol
Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win52%

Rayo Vallecano win
52%
Draw
24%
Espanyol win
23%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.71–1.06

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Rayo Vallecano win 52%, from a +58 Elo gap (1507 vs 1450).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.71-1.06.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Augusto Batalla listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1507

+58

1450

La Liga table
Out

Rayo Vallecano3 out

  • Augusto Batalla
  • Jozhua Vertrouwd
  • Luiz Felipe

Espanyol1 out

  • Andoni Gorosabel
XI
Last league XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Rayo Vallecano

WLDLW

Avg xG 1.29-1.87

Espanyol

DLLWD

Avg xG 1.42-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.6%
  2. 21010.6%
  3. 321Prediction9.7%
  4. 4209.2%
  5. 5006.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Rayo Vallecano versus Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano goals012345
07%6%4%
111%12%6%2%
29%10%5%
35%6%3%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

Rayo Vallecano win: model 52%, fair 1.91, listed 1.93 (49%)

Fair

1.91

52% model

Listed

1.93

49% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.10, listed 3.47 (27%)

Fair

4.10

24% model

Listed

3.47

27% book

Espanyol win

Espanyol win: model 23%, fair 4.30, listed 3.85 (24%)

Fair

4.30

23% model

Listed

3.85

24% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.98 (49%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
1.98

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.09, listed 1.89 (51%)

Fair
2.09
Listed
1.89

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.87, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.15, listed 1.95 (47%)

Fair
2.15
Listed
1.95

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Rayo Vallecano3 out

  • Augusto BatallaOutBroken Leg
  • Jozhua VertrouwdOutHamstring Injury
  • Luiz FelipeOutHamstring Injury

Espanyol1 out

  • Andoni GorosabelOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Rayo Vallecano

4-3-3

  1. 1 Dani Cárdenas · G
  2. 2 Andrei Rațiu · D
  3. 6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss · D
  4. 17 Adrià Pedrosa · D
  5. 24 Florian Lejeune · D
  6. 4 Pedro Díaz · M
  7. 8 Unai López · M
  8. 23 Óscar Valentín · M
  9. 10 Sergio Camello · F
  10. 18 Álvaro García · F
  11. 19 Jorge de Frutos · F

Espanyol

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Marko Dmitrović · G
  2. 6 Leandro Cabrera · D
  3. 14 Unai Núñez · D
  4. 21 Roger Hinojo · D
  5. 23 Omar El Hilali · D
  6. 8 Edu Expósito · M
  7. 20 Gabriel Moscardo · M
  8. 22 Álex Calatrava · M
  9. 24 Tyrhys Dolan · M
  10. 28 Javier Hernández · M
  11. 9 Roberto Fernández · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Rayo Vallecano

WLDLW
  • 32Real Racing ClubHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.61–0.48

  • 25FC BarcelonaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.21–3.04

  • 11Deportivo AlavésHome · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–2.00

  • 12SevillaAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.89–2.19

  • 21Deportivo AlavésAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.34–1.63

Espanyol

DLLWD
  • 11SevillaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.23–0.53

  • 12Real SociedadAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.77–1.82

  • 12Real MadridHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–2.92

  • 30Levante UDHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.55–0.28

  • 11Real SociedadHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.41–1.40

How to read the Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol probabilities

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol (La Liga, 15 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Rayo Vallecano win 52%. Expected goals are 1.71–1.06. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Rayo Vallecano holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.71–1.06). That shows up as Rayo Vallecano win at 52%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Sept 2026, 17:25 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 24%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions