Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 39%. Home 32%, draw 29%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid prediction

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 39%

Sat 29 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon · Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Published 28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit

Sevilla

1–3

Atlético Madrid won

Atlético Madrid

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

39%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Atlético Madrid win · 39%

Actual Atlético Madrid won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SevillavsAtlético Madrid

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win39%

Sevilla win: 32%
Draw: 29%
Atlético Madrid win: 39%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.13–1.26
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 39%, from a -155 Elo gap (1476 vs 1631).
2Expected goals 1.13-1.26.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Robin Le Normand suspended and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1476
-155
1631
La Liga table
Out: SevillaNone out
No listed absences
Atlético Madrid4 out
Robin Le NormandSuspended
Julián Alvarez
Thomas Lemar
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5: Sevilla
WWLLW
Avg xG 1.00-1.31
Atlético Madrid
DWLWW
Avg xG 1.26-2.14

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.7%
20110.9%
3009.8%
4109.7%
5128.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sevilla versus Atlético Madrid
Sevilla goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	11%	7%	3%
1	10%	14%	8%	3%
2	6%	7%	5%
3	2%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sevilla win

Fair

3.09

32% model

Listed

4.10

23% book

Draw

Fair

3.46

29% model

Listed

3.43

28% book

Atlético Madrid win

Disagrees

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

1.95

49% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Atlético Madrid win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.33
Listed: 2.13

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.75
Listed: 1.82

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.83

BTTS no

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.90

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SevillaNone out

No listed absences.

Atlético Madrid4 out

Robin Le NormandSuspendedred card suspension
Julián AlvarezOutpersonal reason
Thomas LemarOutpending transfer
Alexander SørlothOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Sevilla

Atlético Madrid

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Sevilla

4-2-3-1

Atlético Madrid

4-4-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sevilla

WWLLW

31Athletic ClubAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.41–1.25
21Rayo VallecanoHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.19–1.89
01Celta VigoAway · 23 May 2026
xG 0.80–1.59
01Real MadridHome · 17 May 2026
xG 0.72–1.00
32VillarrealAway · 13 May 2026
xG 0.87–0.83

Atlético Madrid

DWLWW

22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.78–3.60
20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.15
15VillarrealAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.16–2.48
10Girona FCHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.97–2.17
21OsasunaAway · 12 May 2026
xG 1.56–2.30

How to read the Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Atlético Madrid win 39%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.26. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–3.

Sevilla and Atlético Madrid are close on expected goals (1.13–1.26), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 39%. Home 32%, draw 29%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.