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La Liga · Round 7 · 2026/27

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction

Slight lean

Real Madrid win 54%

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Atlético MadridvsReal Madrid
Slight lean

Real Madrid win54%

Atlético Madrid win
23%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
54%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.10–1.80

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Real Madrid win 54%, from a -104 Elo gap (1634 vs 1738).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.10-1.80.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Alexander Sørloth listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1634

-104

1738

La Liga table
Out

Atlético Madrid3 out

  • Alexander Sørloth
  • Julián Alvarez
  • Pablo Barrios

Real Madrid1 out

  • Rodrygo
XI
Last league XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Atlético Madrid

WLWDW

Avg xG 1.12-1.27

Real Madrid

WLWWW

Avg xG 2.95-0.91

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.2%
  2. 212Prediction9.8%
  3. 3019.6%
  4. 4028.9%
  5. 5216.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Atlético Madrid versus Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid goals012345
06%10%9%5%2%
16%11%10%6%3%
23%6%5%3%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

Atlético Madrid win: model 23%, fair 4.39, listed 3.57 (26%)

Fair

4.39

23% model

Listed

3.57

26% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.22, listed 3.67 (25%)

Fair

4.22

24% model

Listed

3.67

25% book

Real Madrid win

Disagrees

Real Madrid win: model 54%, fair 1.87, listed 1.92 (49%)

Fair

1.87

54% model

Listed

1.92

49% book

The model disagrees with the listed Real Madrid win price (small). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 1.50 (65%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
1.50

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 2.75 (35%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
2.75

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.42 (66%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.42

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.28, listed 2.70 (34%)

Fair
2.28
Listed
2.70

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Atlético Madrid3 out

  • Alexander SørlothOutMuscle Injury
  • Julián AlvarezOutMuscle Injury
  • Pablo BarriosOutMuscle Injury

Real Madrid1 out

  • RodrygoOutACL Knee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Atlético Madrid

3-4-2-1

  1. 13 Jan Oblak · G
  2. 17 Dávid Hancko · D
  3. 18 Marc Pubill · D
  4. 21 Cristian Romero · D
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente · M
  6. 20 Giuliano Simeone · M
  7. 22 Alejandro Grimaldo · M
  8. 23 Morten Hjulmand · M
  9. 7 Kang-in Lee · F
  10. 10 Alex Baena · F
  11. 11 Ademola Lookman · F

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Thibaut Courtois · G
  2. 16 Ibrahima Konaté · D
  3. 18 Álvaro Carreras · D
  4. 22 Antonio Rüdiger · D
  5. 24 Denzel Dumfries · D
  6. 5 Jude Bellingham · M
  7. 7 Vinícius Júnior · M
  8. 8 Federico Valverde · M
  9. 20 Bernardo Silva · M
  10. 25 Yan Diomande · M
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Atlético Madrid

WLWDW
  • 30Real SociedadAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.05–0.27

  • 03Athletic ClubAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–1.41

  • 31SevillaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.93–0.90

  • 22VillarrealHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.78–3.60

  • 20Málaga CFHome · 19 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–0.15

Real Madrid

WLWWW
  • 41Rayo VallecanoHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.62–1.21

  • 01Real BetisAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 3.46–0.93

  • 40Málaga CFHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.62–0.71

  • 41Real SociedadHome · 26 Aug 2026

    xG 3.14–0.57

  • 21EspanyolAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.92–1.12

How to read the Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid probabilities

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid (La Liga, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Real Madrid win 54%. Expected goals are 1.10–1.80. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Real Madrid holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.10–1.80). That shows up as Real Madrid win at 54%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Real Madrid win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid

Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Madrid win at 54%. Home 23%, draw 24%, away 54%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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