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La Liga · Round 7 · 2026/27

Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 45%

· San Mamés

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Athletic ClubvsDeportivo Alavés
Slight lean

Athletic Club win45%

Athletic Club win
45%
Draw
27%
Deportivo Alavés win
28%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.47–1.10

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 45%, from a +41 Elo gap (1523 vs 1482).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.47-1.10.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Gorka Guruzeta listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1523

+41

1482

La Liga table
Out

Athletic Club2 out

  • Gorka Guruzeta
  • Peio Canales

Deportivo Alavés3 out

  • Aitor Mañas
  • Facundo Garcés
  • Mikel Rodriguez
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/3-5-2
Last 5

Athletic Club

DWWLL

Avg xG 1.62-1.45

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDW

Avg xG 1.58-1.10

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 21010.9%
  3. 321Prediction9.1%
  4. 4208.2%
  5. 5018.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club goals012345
08%8%5%
111%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Athletic Club win

Disagrees

Athletic Club win: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 1.64 (57%)

Fair

2.22

45% model

Listed

1.64

57% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.73, listed 3.75 (25%)

Fair

3.73

27% model

Listed

3.75

25% book

Deportivo Alavés win

Deportivo Alavés win: model 28%, fair 3.56, listed 5.24 (18%)

Fair

3.56

28% model

Listed

5.24

18% book

The model disagrees with the listed Athletic Club win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.11, listed 2.03 (47%)

Fair
2.11
Listed
2.03

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.90, listed 1.83 (53%)

Fair
1.90
Listed
1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.93, listed 1.93 (48%)

Fair
1.93
Listed
1.93

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.07, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
2.07
Listed
1.80

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Athletic Club2 out · 1 doubtful

  • Gorka GuruzetaOutHamstring Injury
  • Peio CanalesOutMuscle Injury
  • Iñaki WilliamsDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Deportivo Alavés3 out

  • Aitor MañasOutHead Injury
  • Facundo GarcésOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Unai Simón · G
  2. 5 Yeray Álvarez · D
  3. 12 Jesús Areso · D
  4. 14 Aymeric Laporte · D
  5. 17 Yuri Berchiche · D
  6. 8 Oihan Sancet · M
  7. 10 Nico Williams · M
  8. 16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · M
  9. 23 Robert Navarro · M
  10. 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena · M
  11. 9 Iñaki Williams · F

Deportivo Alavés

3-5-2

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 16 Ville Koski · D
  4. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  5. 4 Denis Suárez · M
  6. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  9. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · M
  10. 9 Mariano Díaz · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Athletic Club

DWWLL
  • 11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.42–0.84

  • 30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.41–1.02

  • 20Celta VigoAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–0.75

  • 02FC BarcelonaAway · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 0.25–4.23

  • 13SevillaHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.25–0.41

Deportivo Alavés

LWWDW
  • 12Real Racing ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.04–1.46

  • 52OsasunaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–1.64

  • 10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 0.73–1.74

  • 11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 2.00–0.42

  • 30GetafeHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.93–0.24

How to read the Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Athletic Club win 45%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.10. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Athletic Club holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.47–1.10). That shows up as Athletic Club win at 45%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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