Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 7 · 2627.0

Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 46%

Sat 19 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon · San Mamés

Published 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 1/4 checks hit

Athletic Club

0–0

Draw

Deportivo Alavés

1X2

Athletic Club win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Athletic Club win · 46%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Athletic ClubvsDeportivo Alavés

Slight lean

Athletic Club win46%

Athletic Club win: 46%
Draw: 26%
Deportivo Alavés win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.47–1.09
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 46%, from a +50 Elo gap (1523 vs 1472).
2Expected goals 1.47-1.09.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Dani Vivian listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1523
+50
1472
La Liga table
Out: Athletic Club1 out
Dani Vivian
Deportivo Alavés3 out
Aitor Mañas
Facundo Garcés
Mikel Rodriguez
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-3-2
Last 5: Athletic Club
DWWLL
Avg xG 1.62-1.45
Deportivo Alavés
LLWWD
Avg xG 1.40-1.18

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.4%
21011.4%
321Prediction9.1%
4018.5%
5208.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	8%	5%
1	11%	12%	7%	2%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 05:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Athletic Club win

Disagrees

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

1.64

60% book

Draw

Fair

3.84

26% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Deportivo Alavés win

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

6.30

16% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Athletic Club win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.12
Listed: 2.10

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.89
Listed: 1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.96
Listed: 2.00

BTTS no

Fair: 2.04
Listed: 1.75

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Athletic Club1 out

Dani VivianOutGroin Injury

Deportivo Alavés3 out

Aitor MañasOutHead Injury
Facundo GarcésOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Athletic Club

Deportivo Alavés

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

Deportivo Alavés

5-3-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Athletic Club

DWWLL

11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.42–0.84
30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.41–1.02
20Celta VigoAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.78–0.75
02FC BarcelonaAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 0.25–4.23
13SevillaHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.25–0.41

Deportivo Alavés

LLWWD

01ValenciaHome · 15 Sept 2026
xG 1.05–0.65
12Real Racing ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.04–1.46
52OsasunaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–1.64
10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.73–1.74
11Rayo VallecanoAway · 20 Aug 2026
xG 2.00–0.42

How to read the Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Athletic Club win 46%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Athletic Club holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.47–1.09). That shows up as Athletic Club win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.